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比特币减半即将到来,距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半,我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢?4 b# f$ b, U% _5 x8 B3 @
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$ \0 |+ \7 T K
根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看,通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌,然后经过数月的盘整后,会迎来
L- k( H# v7 I; O2 r
6 U: y$ Y+ N( Y% G* s1 U5 h上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察,我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整,意味著比$ }8 a" G. O% k+ a6 W
n" D: n- X4 Z. G
特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。
2 n: k$ w! h5 L' m
6 [) K, \ v# ]# T) G0 ~% s4 e此外,我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段,而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。) _! T9 q+ N" u" N; p
) Q9 _; C9 p3 u( I- T虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化,但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段,然后在减半后进行盘
, l5 }& d. f6 G4 G! |) X& Z. q. w2 G/ v( g& Q. A( w4 R/ c2 w9 H
整,最终突破向上。- F3 _ j0 |6 N5 o! n9 Q
$ t4 \9 @" R& w o3 |3 d0 { 我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工,而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。7 p5 B1 d1 d5 {2 ^
$ h4 a' s" \8 n7 z& o! b* @" j
最近的报告显示,随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降,比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计,目前+ }& g" s3 r* J1 x" o$ O
& F1 @! }4 C% p- ?2 k* U/ |/ {比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。5 U6 q5 c+ p* u" }9 b7 P* l& T
9 @# \$ x" a' S! c: s) g" A% n4 Y根据以上信息,比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长,这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨,先决条件便是需4 N1 Q9 I& e6 h; Y
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要清空所有的库存,才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加,我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作
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7 E% s8 \' h3 b5 K N4 E$ }- D出的估算,因此我们除了关注比特币价格外,还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。0 M% T5 j# r6 V% w J+ {; j
; W+ A( G& B0 [# w, y综合以上信息,我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样,在减半后先迎来一波回调,然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时,价格自
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" M# m! C! M% H5 H- g然会上涨。届时,各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币,可能会转而在现货市场进行购买,这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。. B H4 r; M# r% a) ?
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