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小分3种情况:& k" O2 Y4 v# E9 C. {1 o) F8 t, G
) k4 |8 H$ j' x' @7 E
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。. `+ n2 r, R( a) F8 c6 a; u+ R2 v2 s
* w1 w- l. D, z' X! R2 i
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
. c8 R3 M1 ^5 F, P% }6 T" `, r: g4 m* h. I! V0 ^, O
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
. Q! N! F7 Y4 u) N9 x/ [' w8 x4 J0 E! D+ ]' W" y1 b$ p
2张牌8或9点的情况有:) T2 [5 f% K1 k/ _2 a) e. R+ C& c- O
+ o; k8 j3 j, G5 c. r& u1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10# @2 U8 M4 q% G! F; o0 u
/ O- h2 y$ [, I6 \. ?6 k
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4155 ~+ L- F2 _2 i. R1 f) Z
' ?- H& ^: Y. L; q- t6 ` m0 q' ]6 ~4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4152 Q( r6 I0 o( E* J
9 }' a! U3 w3 n8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
& q' q/ [! ^2 t) S4 ]& w0 Y- p* H) z
) f- D; e( }) ]' |8 k2 j4 `由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
& F: E: _' n6 G8 r9 ~5 j2 [2 J( ?$ A( L; u0 {
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
# V$ d1 j5 N' `/ r5 Z* }; g/ `5 t8 G
那么我们可以得出9 V/ K" A) k. v* c4 c) P' x$ K
0 N. a3 |" r' I) w( ]1 r3 p
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
) c1 @' r; O6 l$ m6 o/ O q! z2 z1 m+ l% [3 T
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
* q P5 N- r3 j: c
) ^" H" E4 s/ F) Z. z' p; n3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
$ S4 _1 k- ^5 Q6 y0 R
9 ]* `$ X/ i% g0 g3 g' _所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
. s5 Y8 \) S7 P% B2 G. I0 [+ j
) O! k- ?) m( t) S ^百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
" }- s/ O2 v( o s& Y% S9 o' V% E7 Q |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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