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很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]/ h$ d* R5 y+ T" w
: Z) ?( g7 S& h$ O3 t6 x1 E
大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。4 G6 I# {1 @4 l7 Q* g4 {* K
有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。
5 m9 k9 N7 A: U8 J$ K结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。
# P+ y% I+ A" l4 k) q4 a5 J1 @6 m; O$ @) t. B/ g
[1]
! p' ~( C( M: r* y$ f3 w英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。+ R* H. `8 X# u6 ?
威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。* Y% Y9 g4 X H0 K* H: d0 @2 A+ p
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。. p+ |! {6 y% u# g" G) L
这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。8 L8 [ _# y% |0 u1 d
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。8 a0 C0 e1 _, j
主胜的开法:+ U4 [# e6 ^1 P+ q, @- W: f
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。
7 E- T, w/ u# k4 b# {/ w5 O你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?. k; q: ~, X3 u3 C/ _
2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
0 @, V6 t$ @# J3 r" [0 M主负:7 w2 U7 S) \/ p2 y. W% i
威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。$ a+ d( w# m" u1 H7 r+ \/ I4 a
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。
) z# f5 r$ t/ Y: |" f9 R/ E0 S平局:
6 ^" O- U/ y( `8 G+ `# S" c现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。4 z6 h/ l" A3 h- w3 w
7 W& Q/ }+ a: ^/ F Z[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
; C4 n7 Y1 w" t' V" B+ B威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
- Q- K0 ~* W5 X5 M维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。
0 O. e* l' G. M思维与上场一样。' @/ y8 f9 R" F Y2 e5 g% z
% F& ^3 G$ [, @* y% h+ H
[3] {) K8 X: T1 w4 ]* G, h8 q
西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。: }( Y; ]3 n7 x
威廉:1.28/4.5/8。
4 Z8 u: J9 e' ]/ S( r立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。
$ R/ S# W- `0 {! o F主队近况不佳,客队132可以。/ ?& H# Y' s. W7 U6 T. G
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
8 ?1 Y! P8 g4 ]7 R主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。
: L3 {3 h j+ c' b现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。+ n0 B/ l& u2 V
主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。
' R9 x& H- ?5 A: C
5 a0 M! K5 {4 {2 W! ~% U那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?
5 I* |/ E0 I5 S0 V; }结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。0 ~$ R" R; }* I9 k/ s
同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。9 c$ b% v$ V5 \" C7 ]5 G
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。
% C7 C% }" N |1 u
2 l) h2 C* H' q y: d% k! W; V很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。5 F2 V+ F ?2 R+ e2 m7 Y
6 Q# G3 [; v! ~0 z$ L
例如:2 N9 ?" @( e. z# F5 s# ^+ O: I, E
西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯; j' G1 i. k: M. n
双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。
+ A9 X Q) d, a& O( \/ b所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。 R, h$ }( {$ G: [; B1 o
: O- k1 v5 _+ L7 j' b" s欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。! ]% r4 A: h2 O3 i- h |, P0 C
当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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