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, n" Q0 [6 M. E/ V8 [$ r/ a很好的文章,转发给大家看。
[欧赔最优解]! m1 G. o4 S; ~8 ~5 g+ Q: @' ^
; L/ Y5 W+ c& t# Y" U* L, f
大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。
/ u# c+ X+ X% i$ C8 P) D: {1 N有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。
8 I0 M0 g. m4 r8 j+ u& T& `; C5 H结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。3 L6 F: c/ G, N# K6 o U& h
8 D7 ]4 a, U& z6 ^1 d/ o T. t[1]1 j+ W0 G) X. K8 A9 s; Z7 h
英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。/ P4 z; [/ h+ S
威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。/ m3 f" b! [8 O9 k
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。
6 R7 a5 N* f- [0 w; C+ D6 S/ z这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。" ~7 w9 K( ?" a6 m1 [0 V
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。6 r3 v( ?+ }& S3 h5 ~% ~4 z3 G
主胜的开法:
4 F% W4 E) K7 `1 e9 Q5 o: }* C% S威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。$ ]6 @5 C2 ~) G7 G" k% d
你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?9 I R1 {5 v2 s+ e/ J4 T/ w) v$ Q
2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。& V1 V3 i* A/ w$ j
主负:
& H' m5 g$ a4 D0 j8 B威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。- c! G0 U: g# Q
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。
1 |8 G! q D! }) p; _" R+ _平局:- y; ]) w$ }. o6 |5 m9 ~2 d8 c
现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。
$ n, C0 n7 p5 _6 i& p8 J4 t' U8 J* G3 k: L% ~* N( ?
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马' ^. j) y# b, ~/ x2 E9 e$ [# I
威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。( C: E! @* K$ u8 d
维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。. _4 W8 @% {+ V! _- ?+ X
思维与上场一样。1 C3 i% ], p8 ^/ r' x
1 o) {4 g4 N* g; f* R[3]
9 m. m5 I+ m/ \- }- u# h, d( r% i西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。
3 U, p. ]8 D, W( L4 k- ?威廉:1.28/4.5/8。
: a F- B4 V3 a* z5 o立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。
" x, Z e! }1 y0 e主队近况不佳,客队132可以。( q7 e. ~4 p2 n/ @6 n3 ]
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
Q: Q* V+ U0 \主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。
! C" E1 l& s [; d, v现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。
" {5 k/ ^& i( X1 g( ], H% L- n' Y主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。
. W# w( q2 i' b6 x |9 b. z
: Q q$ R7 C; @% v$ V( X- r& w那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?. z( ^' j/ r/ n7 O. m; k" h
结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。& N$ A6 d+ z2 t1 X+ s4 X
同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。
5 ]0 R, j7 {. [- u$ i& r6 e; P: p7 N以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。! c% Y7 b# C9 Y; O
" v& b6 V F" J# O) c3 g很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。
% Y; g. i2 q q7 @. o6 x* U$ p! w% J, j4 r% \6 T
例如:& p3 f3 _# h5 S! v/ |8 X' @1 a9 I# t
西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
, [2 z5 d0 _/ h' H% X双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。5 O& `# x, K, V7 h, `8 Q# P; R
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。- M& p4 n. z+ y
" C2 X0 t5 A3 \( B6 I2 }/ G欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。: M0 B+ t, i2 y: B" W" M
当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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