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[lastpost] => 2784957 比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转） 1764235229 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。* f) u& P! {8 O
" ^7 S7 J7 c) s! k1 d要点总结：
8 v( G2 l' D6 ^' A由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。
7 } b# F/ n* q: n链上
8 C. D) Q4 A) v在区块链上记录和验证的交易。 {/ b: W, u( s% R/ G
+ N' h7 _1 m( _! b: ~! c
链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。8 W% {1 ~4 u7 a9 U3 q7 E
技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。# |. u* b( U, L( R) a. [
本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。
& }+ C5 d3 T" e5 a% ^0 u5 U5 _" H6 M: F- u" r+ ~9 W
美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应1 ]4 j6 B% L9 I I" J% Y
推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。4 ^! T$ ?- Q% E) f
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当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。
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1 E' i& z" V# m o/ H, H链上指标变得具有建设性9 v0 |6 [/ j$ \% C7 l- C2 C
普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。( V- y) i+ l% h, f% G# a3 N3 C( q, M
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普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。2 J% C0 {: F5 o+ z' X7 n
m! S3 i/ |0 H5 m
现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf
) L4 Y/ X8 {1 h9 f
; u) z( r; U- t& {( _* L5 V— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日+ y5 @+ ?7 C0 E: q C3 O# H
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市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。( \! d0 }3 V$ U9 q* p
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衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。
; G) V; r6 o J
8 w7 q( K' N1 L0 N3 L技术图表显示动能正在增强。6 p- ?& t/ E1 o" p5 J- d
比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI5 A1 D9 }+ g3 d& C% U" f
7 M. z( q# _, A) ]相对强弱指数3 |! Q+ ^# J/ B' {. D2 d S" Z5 k9 f
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和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD3 ~+ g. c/ V5 p
移动平均收敛/发散
6 Z$ ~* |! Q$ ^$ C+ e4 Y
* q0 j4 p6 o0 `" t“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。
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