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[虚拟币交流]
比特币：分析师预测将升至7.5万至8万美元：原因如下（转）
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比特币[BTC]价格图表显示，市场结构可能发生转变，预示着价格可能突破3月份开始的5万至7.2万美元的区间 ；: e5 M& x- B2 X
. q/ H) j0 S( `0 Q/ Z据分析师称股票钱蜥蜴，区间突破可能会在两周内发生。如果是这样的话，分析师预测，如果最近跌破6万美元被辩护为“更高的低点”，比特币可能会达到7.5万至8万美元5 t t) f+ \; d }* ~
* V1 v" R7 B# I; E5 P+ r“如果这一更高的低点得到证实，我们将在2周内突破这一上限阻力。下一个目标是7.5万至8万美元。”% d' u6 {. ] C/ ]. ?$ N4 U. W
& b6 Q" f+ }' q* u
就背景而言，自8月以来，BTC一直在创下更高的低点，这一价格走势预示着潜在的市场结构转变，特别是如果出现更高的高点 ；# ~/ D4 O8 K8 V \" _
$ r* O3 `- S! z/ J需求上升与风险 y5 R3 M( V+ T [) D, ^- Z+ X
投资者对全球最大数字资产的兴趣也有所改善，这表明与第二季度/第三季度相比，第四季度的需求复苏缓慢但稳定。, n4 d7 g, f/ p! u5 d- D* R; k
. y4 X( q! Q: D. ]4 ?) J从长远来看，自5月以来，BTC的需求一直是负的，卖出超过了买入。然而，CryptoQuant指出，不平衡的步伐已经放缓 ；
, \+ |' Z9 J+ `- t% j% n% P8 U) b V8 w0 ^% ?. O
事实上，过去30个交易日对BTC的明显需求表明，投资者需求达到了5月份的水平。
& k4 w7 R4 p6 R+ ^2 d; p8 a! Y. X3 o7 b0 P4 Y- j' E
在9月底至10月中旬期间，约有15万BTC被投资者抢购，价值约94亿美元 ；, f9 S1 p! A- W
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因此，如果这种模式在未来两周内持续下去，不断增长的需求可能会支持Stockmoney Lizards的突破预测 ；4 g! v6 ]5 B3 S* h9 S
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但杠杆率的上升，如未平仓合约（OI）的上升，也给突破预期带来了迫在眉睫的陷阱 ；
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- h; j- H8 v# u2 C4 E6 C对于不熟悉的人来说，杠杆率上升意味着投机者通过借钱在期货市场开立BTC头寸来承担更多风险。
$ [! _) @7 L& ]$ @7 N2 q
6 p2 S5 [, S7 J1 l, d根据Glassnode，最近一个周末从58.9万美元上涨到63.4万美元，一些卖空者（OI为25亿美元）纷纷抛售 ；& i& ?9 y! S" x5 Z
! ^6 r2 T1 j+ `' W5 T; g2 |" G然而，该分析公司还指出，OI的跌幅没有超过5%，这一水平在历史上总是会出现BTC的长期反弹。
@; v4 j' a$ Q4 d% E7 p8 _* K2 s3 M8 h
C4 d1 q6 c2 V7 z# D" V简而言之，价格方向两侧的波动性和清算风险加剧可能会破坏突破预期 ；
k( P7 S8 ]. |2 N! N
2 q) H2 j H5 p/ U+ A* k6 F7 X与此同时，BTC的价值为62.8万美元，并在发稿时跌破200天移动平均线（MA）
9 S4 }$ h3 X5 G" U+ Q
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