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[lastpost] => 2768025 加密货币已不再是单纯的炒币...现在可用币买房买车交学费,连“冷冻身体”都行... 1758696317 rainwang
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。. q# M- |2 c6 f
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。
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8 H! r3 c+ _: D1 ~自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
1 u7 w" i% P" a4 Z6 y8 X; l3 V2 Z
阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。% C' \6 k. s1 l$ U9 I8 H6 ^
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2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
( j, [6 r( [" {% R, {+ w: M1 m1 S9 J0 k$ x$ t. u
那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?& `1 l: ?' D/ I) n
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观察ETF和鲸鱼活动& U! b$ v( K u3 n+ a: _; m# N
分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
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上周降至1300 BTC。( @; L. N; J# v, v! x3 M5 a
' t+ I! g1 z/ J3 W5 ^3 @ K, S从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
- a- c; d4 c& \
5 C# N9 J2 P7 Y) @. X鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。 Q- s& m* h/ ]. d& z3 }) P+ R
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鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。/ M6 x Z W0 c5 @" ]
- k7 N& h5 ?: G# wSantiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。) _7 m& r3 ]" Y J' \
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尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。: J- B6 }' w% O6 d6 h# B
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比特币会突破其区间吗?+ l8 c' F" ]1 z: v$ C
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。% R/ E# u1 O6 y5 s7 _' O4 F
. f" g" I+ o3 F0 o根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
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M2 @4 _$ |$ S, g8 c s% c因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。1 e& b: ?+ B" ?( k1 c2 U. `( c" ?1 ~
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。 T7 Q4 g! _5 ?4 v+ k
3 F) p+ S3 Y! Y! V; O8 j8 f位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
: L8 [& t: @& }. x% e! c% b3 M然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
+ [$ ?& {5 `8 {: t3 b
) Y4 q t0 @8 O' Y根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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