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小分3种情况:
& Q3 J6 O, V' }2 o1 a% r
0 ]4 n' E$ E5 [1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。" P# z7 O- r* }* A2 H" h4 K
# h" S9 N& q( l) |5 l; M+ ?7 f
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
8 T+ r( }% m- [ }9 \' y+ B) [# y$ X
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
6 C$ c# H4 v5 N6 v, e9 R8 o+ B( Y5 B4 L' v& y5 ~: d8 c
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
( f; V- O' T/ S1 K/ v" a/ q3 y7 S2 m# W- K( X
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
c* m0 \) H9 F! n
~7 T6 ?4 V4 L7 I+ U, N1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
# E% X( J, N* J1 I* k; g+ L1 j
" q6 ]5 p4 C; [" e4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415. z7 ^8 E/ u. q; L
0 d3 p2 D# ?6 m
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
- L+ X& x! ]1 ? t. i- z' ^
( Z. M: L" V0 A由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。3 c; h6 W1 \2 w
/ f+ P1 g$ {2 T
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。 }6 k4 t% G2 T' J1 B' j
3 a! R0 Q+ }! Z, D2 H那么我们可以得出
: f) f* X* |* q1 a+ V* |
& @8 X Y f$ }! m t6 n% }1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
6 v7 j7 K3 m/ I; @# X& ?3 }6 l( D
' @9 J3 j! v8 b, O3 Q0 |3 z, X+ j2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
5 `2 w: E, z0 G* i/ q
7 W6 C( h, y; ~6 W0 F2 D, ]3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
) J% a2 i$ A. b! o" Y# A, m
/ W0 y* i# J& B/ O所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
3 [5 _1 X7 |) r
8 D1 k# T" w* r Y$ u( c, R$ k" E4 v百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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