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[虚拟币交流]
比特币回落至 85,000 美元，损失转嫁给新入场者（转）
[复制链接]
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比特币周一跌至 85,800 美元，表明新晋大投资者和长期持有者都在推动这波持续数月给价格带来压力的抛售潮。 过去 155 天内累计持有超过 1000 个比特币的实体，其未实现亏损已达到 2023 年以来的最高水平。长期持有大量比特币的老鲸鱼仍然盈利。 与此同时，根据链上分析公司的数据，过去三个月购买比特币的钱包的盈亏率已达到-25%。加密量化从历史上看，-12% 至 -37% 范围内的跌幅通常被视为牛市反转的标志。 “新鲸鱼价格下跌并不一定意味着强制抛售。如果比特币跌破近期买家的关键成本基础，尤其是在ETF或机构入场区域附近，那么投降风险就会上升，”印度加密货币交易所BuyUCoin首席执行官Shivam Thakral表示。解密. 他补充说，剧烈的宏观经济冲击最有可能引发防御性抛售。 然而，卖方压力并非对所有投资者群体都相同。长期投资者和短期投资者之间存在明显的分歧。 截至周一，短期持有者（通常持有资产不到六个月的投资者）的 30 天净持仓变化已达到 +768,000 BTC，这表明市场正在积累。 相反，同样的指标显示，长期持有者的净持仓变化为 -755,000 BTC，表明存在分散化现象。 自 2025 年 7 月以来，长期持有者持有的比特币供应量减少了约 178 万枚，降至 1368 万枚。 与新投资者大量抛售的假设相反，同期短期持有者的比特币供应量增加了约 180 万枚，达到 628 万枚。 塔克拉尔表示：“从长期投资者转向短期投资者是牛市周期末期的正常现象，反映的是获利回吐和资本轮动，而非市场压力。与以往周期不同的是，如今的需求更加广泛，也更加机构化，ETF和企业资产负债表吸收了部分供给。” 他补充说：“这看起来不像是一个结构性顶部，而更像是一个典型的财富转移阶段。” 分析师指出，虽然这种轮动加剧了短期价格的脆弱性，但它通常会为下一轮上涨前的盘整奠定基础。 根据 CoinGecko 的数据，市值最高的加密货币在 24 小时内下跌了近 4%。
* ^- v- B1 u- J" l |
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新韭菜被套得挺惨啊，老鲸鱼还在赚钱，这波真是割不动了 |
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比特币市场波动，老鲸鱼盈利，新鲸鱼需谨慎，盘整心态重要 |
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新鲸鱼这波确实惨，85k扛不住的话怕是要引发连锁反应，老韭菜都等着捡漏呢。 |
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