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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。
: \: q: z- E" p; [1 q0 T0 C& E3 N) X( N
要点总结：
. @) r6 p& e! @" E9 ~' B由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。
. z4 ]" A+ P4 q6 P& Q3 A链上
5 t- l9 f8 K' x* R) F0 |在区块链上记录和验证的交易。
1 c# \2 ^4 Y8 J
5 l; H, d2 ^, t0 l链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。
- X+ M& D1 Q9 J; I/ x技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。
* B6 m, C; ? W e* R/ T% }本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。5 G" d* |4 s& G
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美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应4 [2 h! Y \* F
推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。' e, D$ G1 b+ {/ k# R1 h( Q7 }
7 ~) i# q. Y3 \ W当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。0 V0 n: o9 M8 g+ z$ }! o, r# ] W5 O
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链上指标变得具有建设性: p) Y+ c; t4 k' a: P: z& }
普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。
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1 V" u" p' q% `4 O普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。/ w: h& r; a( c9 b: S
3 D! |% E1 P. _6 ^" D! ^" b现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf0 k& @( D+ ?) ^1 U! \4 o' u/ r I5 O
m. Z' A/ T8 m— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日# R& B) _ V4 f8 `
+ \% \( e5 `& o9 J B市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。7 V$ \; X3 V$ n- F$ v# l
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衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。
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技术图表显示动能正在增强。
$ t; h; \" f' B; }# y比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI3 R6 ?3 l& @; u6 J+ V
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相对强弱指数& R, X# k t* W+ v
0 h: X9 E* A5 ~- v$ q5 ~和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD9 C9 t @4 t3 Y3 C4 t5 x% P V9 ]
移动平均收敛/发散
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“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。
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