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近期市场利空汇总：AI 泡沫主导美股涨跌，ETF 创纪录流出加剧市场抛售，12 月降息前景大幅摇摆不定
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比推消息，比特币自 10 月 7 日创历史新高后遭遇连续抛售，46 天内最大跌幅超 35%，昨日险些失手 8 万美元关口，带领整个加密货币市场连续数日阴跌失血，现小幅反弹至 8.5 万美元附近。
近期全球金融市场下行风险加剧，AI 泡沫论证主导美股涨跌，美国政府的创纪录关门导致各类重要宏观数据推迟发布，流动性急剧萎缩，12 月降息概率大幅波动，具体利空汇总如下：
· 市场质疑英伟达高额应收账款无法收回，现金转化率低于同行水平。同时多家 AI 公司资金被循环使用，部分交易重复计入收入，多家投资机构抛售英伟达股票，AI 泡沫长时间压制美股走势，市场整体下行。昨日晚间美联储官员唱多 AI，英伟达 CEO 发声澄清 AI 泡沫担忧，美股回暖；
· 贝莱德 IBIT 本月 19 日惊现创纪录的 5.23 亿美元单日资金流出，本月巨额净流出超 25 亿美元，创史上连续交易日市值蒸发最高纪录，分析称美股散户抛售现货比特币和以太坊 ETF 为加密市场的主要抛压，加密原生用户遭受重创；
· 美国政府刚刚结束连续 43 天的创纪录停摆，期间多项重要经济数据和就业数据暂停发布。9 月非农就业意外大增 11.9 万人，美联储鹰派对于通胀的持续担忧，导致 12 月降息概率大幅波动，近一个月从最初高达 70% 的降息概率（25 BP），回落至 30%，交易员一度押注市场 12 月不再降息。今日凌晨多位美联储官员又集体放鸽，降息概率升至 71.3%（25 BP），降息押注再次升温。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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