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周一,加密货币市场遭遇大规模清算,超过15亿美元的多头头寸被强制平仓,引发了近一个月来最严重的闪崩行情。根据Coinglass的数据,在过去24小时内,超过40.7万名交易员被强制平仓,看涨押注的平仓总额一度超过15亿美元。以太坊受创最重,价格一度暴跌9%至4075美元,近5亿美元的杠杆多头头寸被抹去。比特币也未能幸免,下跌近3%至111998美元。美股盘前基准股指下挫,科技股普跌。; T, R4 W z$ P6 c! [2 g/ s, z U
市场分析师认为,8 c5 r9 @- {% _& W+ N% E7 y2 |
此次暴跌主要由过度杠杆和山寨币涨势过热引发的连强制平仓所致。清算和追加保证金通知触发自动卖单,加速了比特币的下跌。
2 d4 M+ O8 I2 p这种连锁反应导致短时间内巨额平仓,使整个数字资产总市值跌破4万亿美元大关。' i6 \' \# @3 k% r! e
XBTO Trading的高级交易员George Mandres表示:
( w/ D; L/ U1 i& N$ \( X“市场似乎需要喘息之机,一些参与者担心‘数字资产财库交易’(DAT-trade)正在失去动力,且未来没有更多有意义的资金流入。”" m2 d- ?7 ~; j2 I1 b5 v
下跌引发连锁反应' m1 P) G& r( P. W5 F# v, J3 x i* y
周末开始的下跌,在周一加速演变为全面平仓。 b8 |& }* u* W: o! I9 z
根据CoinGlass数据,
3 ~" h( N, }0 F* r; i过去24小时内平仓金额达到4.42亿美元,为8月29日以来的最高水平。清算事件一度在一小时内达到10亿美元的峰值。/ _* Q% r% G* s
比特币跌破11.43万美元关键支撑位后,触发了大量多头头寸的强制平仓。在短短四分钟内
) _6 D5 x7 a# M0 H,比特币价格跌破11.2万美元,随后小幅反弹至11.3万美元附近。2 O( e$ O! J" I: f4 B- w5 D7 M
除了主流代币外,此次清算还影响了价值1.097亿美元的小型资产。近期表现强劲的ASTER、WLFI、PUMP等代币也遭遇显著清算。连BNB也在从900美元涨至近1100美元后出现有限的多头平仓。4 g; t; p9 F/ h& @9 `
历史上,多头头寸一直是清算损失的主要承担者。上一次大规模平仓潮发生在2025年2月,当时24小时内平仓金额达22亿美元,约70万名交易者失去头寸。' I5 o8 q4 d/ A) G
技术指标显示超卖状态,“山寨币季节”戛然而止
; f4 S8 m ?. M4 h( _! z在这场抛售中,以太坊和各类山寨币的跌幅远超比特币。周一,当比特币兑美元汇率下跌约2.5%时,# d b) O' w$ z5 Q, Y5 S4 D# I+ w
以太坊的跌幅超过6%。以太坊相对于比特币的汇率(ETH/BTC)也突然跌至0.037,创下一个月来的新低。
3 \( }) r* D% n5 M5 f/ G以太坊价格一度回落至4200美元区间,虽然相较于年初仍有26%的涨幅,但已从8月下旬创下的4900美元以上的历史高点大幅回调。同时,以太坊的未平仓合约总额从近期的约300亿美元回落至270亿美元,反映出衍生品市场热度的降温。
n m) r; N& {& g1 x清算和追加保证金通知触发更多自动卖单,加速了比特币的下跌。这种强制平仓形成的连锁反应是造成短时间内巨额平仓的主要原因。: ~8 T1 G9 M8 z& S/ z0 y: G: q# u
相对强弱指数在大幅下跌期间进入超卖区域,一度跌破20,5 t. n4 | X5 V" B; q
凸显了交易者行动的速度和严重程度。如此深度的超卖状态通常伴随清算驱动的崩盘,价格走势更多受强制平仓而非有机卖出驱动。) ~3 w' w9 E+ J
分析认为,最近几周并非真正的“山寨币季节”,而更像是一场由少数代币(如BNB)领涨的“短暂的半山寨币季节”。当这些领涨代币积累的过度热情消散时,便引发了整个市场的连锁下跌。目前,比特币的市场主导地位已回升至56.2%,而以太坊的主导地位则下滑至12.8%。4 i, d+ m6 \. ]' |7 F; j
狂热情绪降温,市场寻求喘息之机' @( J- }0 W# K9 O! S: k9 H
市场分析人士指出,
0 X0 L; w; |* \: C此次大规模平仓主要由利率上升预期引发。
) ]% g* D8 f8 y6 b( x9 j紧缩货币政策通常对加密货币等另类资产构成压力,当债券和储蓄等安全资产收益率上升时,加密货币对投资者的吸引力下降。6 L$ [% e: |! h6 G! b1 R2 ~1 g
此次闪崩普遍被视为对前几周市场狂热情绪的修正。8月份,在所谓“数字资产财库公司”(即公开宣布将加密货币作为财库储备资产的公司)需求的推动下,比特币和以太坊双双创下历史新高。
+ K8 W r3 s9 G2 a市场分析人士指出,当前的回调在加密市场的正常波动范围内。从历史上看,“山寨币季节”通常较为短暂,往往只持续数周。从积极的方面看,DeFi领域的借贷协议并未受到大规模清算的威胁,因为大多数贷款头寸保持保守,大规模平仓水平远低于当前价格。& o% m# Q! E/ e2 m' N0 Z
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