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[体育菠菜心得方法] 纸上谈兵之恐惧与贪婪:浅谈体育博彩心理盲点(选择性分析)
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1)过度自信。导致交易频繁!$ Z2 `3 {3 i! c6 U% `9 O' F$ O
记住,硬币投的次数越多,正反面的概率就越接近!玩竞彩没有抛硬币那样的完美系数,因为国家DC要留下20%到百分之50左右的喋血筹码,恰恰那就是你下注后的必亏指数!玩周末彩,一周您最多就抛一两次硬币,这样的话,安全系数相对还是有一定的平台优势!另外,不要跟我说你的技术多么好,不要跟我说你有盈利的模式,在国家DC目前,谁盈利了谁就是不爱国的行为,你把“题材中心”吃喝玩乐的钱袋入自己口袋里,你就能心安理得吗,未必?8 I& K/ x8 `' ~, F0 B0 S
箴言:保家爱国,远离竞彩!
' b5 l7 b. y2 C" h: ^* N; p2)行动的错误比忽略的错误更让人痛苦。6 \0 W" i1 Q; \% h, @+ ~5 I
比如你之前看好上盘,在朋友的建议下你改下盘,上盘胜出你会很痛苦;若你不听朋友建议结果下盘跑出,你并不觉得很痛苦,因为你已经对原先的看法有了感情投资。天朝老百姓有今天的日子可过真的不容易,,那都是革命先烈的鲜血换回来的,越是强调过去的民族越是诚惶诚恐的民族,所以说,"一人龙,三人虫,多人虫卵" 的社会现实理念包围着我们并将长久困扰着我们的子子孙孙。参与菠菜业,最终能够获得回报的,只有一条道,那就是靠自己,靠自己的汗水和毅力去挖掘属于你的那口泉水,并保护好别被污水盯上。$ ~$ m8 O+ j. N* \4 L
箴言:带你进菠菜世界的人不是你的恩人,给你提供菠菜资讯的人不是你的朋友,而规劝你离开这淌水的才是你的良师益友!
' K! C5 u& h0 X. E, M3)“认知不协调”
8 N6 L0 x9 G! _0 _相对于观望或者毫无头绪的人,已经下拄的人更加强烈的相信他们的选择是对的。菠菜世界里没有专家,牵强称的上专家的只有为菠菜公司服务的那几台计算机,而它们也常常发生不必要的错误。给你选择的机会也就是给你犯错误的机会,越是有人认定必杀的球你越是要小心点,因为只要有人类存在的地方就有信息不对称的攀比行为,那是动物的劣根性,人怎么可以例外呢?# X8 t- H7 S$ b
箴言:“必杀”反过来念就是“SB”!概率大事件可以给你信心,但不是给你跨海口的佐料!/ v4 p: y" @) v+ d( S# R5 m5 D' O
4)“事后诸葛亮”效应,将已经发生的事情视为显而易见,却忽略了自己的判断实际上受到了已知结果的影响;自以为自己看盘的胜率很高;为了降低这种偏见最好赛前做好笔记。没错,做笔记是最好的习惯!做笔记才能在最高演讲台上站多会儿,做笔记才能让你知错,做笔记才能让你有机会让在巨人的肩膀上振臂高呼!
6 b' a" p+ o; p/ f箴言:高高在上,不如低头絮语!# q% I( P0 k% j% e( p
5)“自我实现”,当人们对一盘口有特点的倾向时,总是更多地找证据来证实,而不是找证据来证明他们的看法是错的。决策者偏好与假设一致的信息,而不是那些不一致的信息。
1 M/ O% x+ x% l5 q; N5 G竞彩的最大问题就是什么样的模式能保证赢利。我觉得博胆2串1的模式是比较不错的,5中1的概率是对自己比赛判断的一个最低衡量。为什么不串3串,4 串?,我没把握。为什么不容错?,容错的模式投入与产出是不成比例的,当你无法保证全对的情况下,中奖率再高也难保证赢利,为什么要博胆而不找稳胆?低 SP稳胆投注,当你无法把握到七成的中奖概率,你中的次数再多,也几乎很难盈利。【竞彩的一赔赔率比外围低百分之10左右,看冷的,竞彩反而高于国外】。为什么不求稳而采用双选呢?竞彩双选只有赔率达4点以上的冷门才有价值,而冷门双选的风险可能比博胆更危险。而正路补防的双选投注,表面上看很稳,但实际是一种投注的错误,打出正路低赔率,就是亏本投注,举个列子1.803.20 4.00的,看好主队不败,复选31,打出了3真实赔率才0.9,还不如延期,打出了1,其实也只有1.6.。如果复选,打出高SP表面看有利,实质上真实赔率并不高,即使高达4点的赔因为是双选,其实也就只有2点赔率。最主要的是这种风险和产出不成正比。所以,博胆2串1的竞彩模式个人觉得很实用。此种模式的最最关键一点,就是博胆的实力水平,只要你自己认为自己有这个博胆的实力,那么这种模式你是比较适合的。关于竞彩出票的时机上,大家多多总结【个人觉得看冷的晚出票好,正路的早出票好】。新赛季,估计我不会玩竞彩了,因为个人觉得竞彩就是个4不像,最主要的是不能单关固定赔率玩法,我不喜欢多串,所以以后还是去玩亚盘的了。
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