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[lastpost] => 2811346 以太坊CEX余额骤降：2月流出超3100万枚，Binance平台余额创2020年以来最低水平（转） 1772664390 whywhy
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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+ y; g- c. u6 E2 x8 a3 i. f( E瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心$ J3 C0 ~) P% r) ], D: q8 o. d
/ I# x, c9 J. a& v衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
" ~% h% U: b: ]7 x2 C美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
% O- u8 f- C8 v5 u I, C( u5 I$ m/ H y; n r3 b
融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。+ H5 _7 X7 d: H( j b6 Q4 w1 r
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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( x" }% k: V/ \6 z1 ^率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。7 p$ I1 P9 }' ~* i' f. s- T
2 M0 M% K g8 R
然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更5 Z4 w2 u% C; U6 l. v0 N0 ^. C! \. d1 n
) z) T* y& V- O6 j- N. ^
是表示：
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X+ X& i+ e. e) r# E0 S. U这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。" e1 p2 w! {+ w p
1 i3 \' H; T: X s历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币0 Y/ T8 C9 R" _+ g4 I2 o
- B5 S$ r1 \5 {- Z/ D+ w& H& H特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史; p- u" f- H" w& @6 R" A9 l# X6 A
- N7 s# w5 [$ l0 Y1 e$ B9 |/ O+ H标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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r5 v" v. R. J' `( v4 B! p6 w$ _周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
8 L. {( `( ]7 E! n f; U+ @+ a, q9 _" A) f( N! m
周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。4 r' k) q+ d3 q K6 Q# v; E t
' z; B" @. `- a% Z) J) K周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债7 c; K8 c* x; W# K5 h2 ^
6 H9 }3 R& y0 f+ M% H" z; f
收益率冲高回落。
8 o% K2 @! R/ C* \1 v; M8 j6 }+ U1 h3 P1 \
周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。8 c- T" Y' N3 |( B6 {
! P$ n( |, _: p/ T/ e7 ?6 Y! F- u周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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$ F3 O; c( ^6 l, h
$ w. f0 X b; f/ Q+ e* _2 H7 x" c. ULoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，# ^/ {' Z) Y, j: J( A: z
: n; Q5 X. x+ i4 n* y& H是的，这正是我们所看到的。"0 {- w4 M$ D! B$ T* G
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
$ \4 G9 j+ k u+ |
) T _9 B& f- C1 p1 ~$ ~年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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, p7 U8 u0 A R4 Q/ rRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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