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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
7 P# T. G. K- Y4 j7 F: d
9 c" ?3 W2 b! d% \0 v) @2 [2 p- w) n5 v" X8 V+ W) h" \* K
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率6 d/ O7 d( s! v
5 L, {/ ^* w% U6 R% m以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:5 T* I( {+ ~8 H, L$ V- A2 _
" Z8 s% R7 ]# h) }( ]; R皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% : T8 v) @2 x6 b! j9 `5 U% d9 w
* e3 S. @$ m2 n
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?- c* t; ^: W. k$ `8 ?- p" _
. [, ^# M) i( t( _; }; Z" O9 K
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)$ _+ M8 z; }" u# Z) H; g. R
8 n3 E: a' ~& h7 w! m
$ q$ x5 h- R4 ~% i( J9 Z* n以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化? O1 t( i; _& z' j9 b9 s
$ g5 g# m2 @! z
6 o, X" Q" G: q9 l7 d盈利可能性
# y- [0 D6 S4 Z. w9 s
# l' G( K/ Y8 J% g* N- V( C对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。 b- z' z6 @7 P$ q/ o6 g2 _
) p& ?# D( Y8 F0 ^, p增值: V. n# E$ Y' C5 J& e6 X
/ f- E- m& d6 G许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。! |" s1 x& p' @* |$ \
: F( j4 ^+ f$ b' m7 x. u你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
$ S" j( `4 ~: Y, d$ a6 _# N% \
- b: I0 b# ]: B5 b/ va) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
6 r! V8 ~: L9 F$ x2 k: C% Y( v9 v% {/ f( o7 D# `9 e# d0 U
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么/ L$ V1 O9 B, P3 M, \, @
2 K8 q* d8 B4 H6 n. N; u
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润1 c8 a9 S. F, J K3 l( _
60%的机会你会一无所有
H. V0 F. O4 Y- ?6 n V0 I预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
! {* x' A" V) @4 _7 T; @0 L5 o由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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: U7 J7 x N( a6 L9 g& q& G增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
. Z' R$ S ~$ S
7 R( u. {, \" [基于增值的投注
8 y4 P8 c6 Y; o8 P9 M
' f- c. s+ y3 [; `5 Z9 a# \& O凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。" N( p0 R% @* |$ A
* s8 J& e- P! j; ~" r' g3 n公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1) @! u+ W2 S) N- d; b$ R; d
6 x6 e |& i; | @: q- r' J% VA=博彩资金
4 `0 G* v) Z F3 H' O$ i6 MP=获胜机会% w! Y1 A, d2 i# K) c) W
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)4 j- R; |! \7 K1 _7 H
7 h, ^ {5 ^. v4 I
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。& S- W" k+ S- ~( ~
9 ?- K( C- }$ M6 m8 j. x: _! p/ t好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。+ x7 l! u& t- b9 R% k
. J. k8 r9 m$ T" U U1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
* g4 Q+ C4 M4 h4 m
0 e0 g8 g0 n; [" J! aA=03 g" ^7 l O6 `8 E( Q1 t
( [8 \' \) T4 o" _结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢0 i6 P6 _- o1 X& E1 T4 D0 N4 m
d5 w1 x: B( U+ L( j6 h2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)* S5 i4 E2 O" c w7 k
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
% p Y% B( `7 |4 O
4 W0 f, A5 t; w" {& z2 r$ iA=0.19 P$ n7 N0 X- l. t. [' k
: c! V" X: z& _# D0 [
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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, p9 a+ j/ }. b9 H" Q5 X& R3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)8 O- I! E* f3 W" ~% {
+ R4 ?5 u3 E- h9 |/ C
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
9 U! J2 w/ B8 f$ n4 I' Q% g- y* i) v1 B+ p! S# N
A= -0.2 0 |9 ]* W$ G8 x# L
* ]' r6 p& g" h
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好2 `7 l, ~8 q t
+ {$ \$ x3 a5 }* H0 ]
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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