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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘# A, V8 K5 B' l3 V" w& n6 P9 f
) T' N( V+ }5 S) k3 z, B 初盘高水,豪门要防冷
( Z4 S6 z- p) B, ~4 F2 n 3 j, W" f* H1 _6 s
0 Z) `/ o0 m0 p* @; J5 [0 z
09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
7 u/ @+ }+ F; r: x 英超主队8 r$ [7 ]; Q2 j$ T
胜:11场 79%/ M3 }9 x, D: z, t7 q
平:2场 14%5 N8 N- z2 i7 j& b0 e" o. K- l9 t
负:1场 7%) n7 c! r, c. C: M* p+ S0 n' J
8 J( I: Z2 _; q2 ]/ V
通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。/ g! v! ]1 W' `
6 B2 Y4 `. F' O2 ~8 e2 t! s2 | 一、初盘阶段
7 K3 \2 x& c& {
/ G& n& w, G! l6 P 具体到水位如下:2 t2 L) n$ N9 @; ^
初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
6 @4 c1 A% D, I3 d; K! |) p 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平' b% G" T7 {9 a0 _2 o$ w/ v
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平, G7 a/ Q+ ]6 y/ _8 \! x
8 n/ m5 ]2 W( t# u1 Y# F, s: n
分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:! W& f, A B% ^/ P! @
2 l, ?3 S" k( _, i 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
A& G5 [& B& S 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
2 D0 N3 ~" e# N- Z6 d" { 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
% z8 a( ]# D' L2 S. J' A- A 8 H7 U( t' `: U
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。* C( Y+ w" X' w# B8 G
初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
4 }5 Z; S4 T+ _1 m7 b ; F4 C7 y7 Z1 S
二、临场阶段 H; D. a; ^* _$ r; @
9 O$ g& k9 ?* e. `
具体到盘口如下:7 D5 E& D7 M2 Y( B- P4 u; |
临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜7 P" y; E1 x) S9 s: v, |/ H
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平' }: V- w6 V! q3 z6 {
分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:3 M$ O8 v; w$ Z+ }& D* A( W7 `, y
8 Y3 S( o$ [- _; M2 ]3 l
热刺VS伯恩利" G% Y$ t. a. @8 f: N) x* ?
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
. Y% C6 O" Y% {+ m2 b% d- o: a 终盘:0.77球半1.09
2 r0 Z* t" j7 |$ H- M; y % ?3 m! U/ R- F9 r
临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。; b/ T. O3 u3 I$ d* L
2 j0 K* \6 `, [. G" v 三、球队表现7 c/ \1 {$ g/ o" i9 P, z k
' f. w1 K( ]! m6 Z4 H- A. A 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
% j+ @/ w( \% h$ w G; M* w' c( B% N
- N7 G6 R5 C* J2 Q5 l m 四、投注要点
) C1 A* Q! L. g# m; O" M. P+ v8 M4 z
$ v4 m4 ]0 A0 u$ m, p8 E M5 z 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
' O8 p! @9 E+ Y 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
: Y% ?4 R2 \( | 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
7 w7 T5 d! {- Z5 X 要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
/ h: N' E8 H1 ?5 U7 \3 |. y% G 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低7 [* }1 p$ O2 _; b
要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
: ^9 K" z. M" F7 _0 N: w9 P 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
6 ]' I. U7 T. |) M : ^! `$ Z% a4 Z7 Z& @2 [/ o: ^3 R
对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法% k* N9 _& X; T. F9 [( H
对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
) v* _, G( A% n( x 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
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