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[体育菠菜心得方法] 大小球分析实例
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例2:比达 VS 鹿特丹斯巴达(荷甲)

比分:2-2

初盘:0.90 2.5/3球 0.95

终盘:0.80 3球 1.05

基本面分析:比达主场火力强大,从近2轮的表现来看,防线开始松动存在一定隐患。客军鹿特丹客场防线千疮百孔,而其攻击力也是飘忽不定。双方最近2次交锋各有胜负,均以大比分完场。从两队基本面来看,主队进球机会要大于客队。从交锋记录来看,双方都有击穿对方球门的机会。

理论盘口:本场进球预期在4.2球,按照联赛性质和联赛开盘习惯,理论盘口为3.5球。

盘口分析:365初盘2.5/3球盘口开小,临场阶段大球升盘降水。从两队的基本面情况来看,打出一场进球大战的预期值相当之高,何况当时的荷甲也习惯性的容易打出大比分出来,因此,看好大球的玩家绝对不在少数。就本场的盘口来看,初盘给出的浅盘中低水,大球盘实在是太过便宜,对这一点稍微了解一点09赛季以前的荷甲的玩家都看得出来。那么,如此浅盘且贴水也很划算,难道庄家不担心玩家筹码会趋之如骛吗?试想,当时的荷甲恐怕地球人都知道是最典型的大球联赛,也就是说对于进球数的博弈来说,荷甲当属敏感的热点赛事。如果庄家按照实力开盘又会怎样?很简单,看好大球的玩家更会信心百倍的投往大球盘口,可见,庄家也很清楚这么做的风险有多大。因此,初盘开小给出较便宜的盘口和水位,玩家反倒会对大球产生动摇。而临场再恰到好处的升盘降水,从盘口表象来看,造热大球的特征十分明显,实则又是一个典型的阻上降赔的操盘手法。

盘路总结:由上述案例可以看出,无论盘口升降,都是庄家的一种心理战术。罗马对拉齐奥是在玩家对进球数犹豫不决时,通过升盘升水制造大球受阻的假象,促使玩家看好大球。而荷甲是在玩家对大球充满期望时,通过盘口和水位的变化,使玩家对大球心生疑虑,达到阻盘效果。

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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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