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[lastpost] => 2652588 2024年5月20日,比特币第二层开发团队BEVM发布了题为“Taproot共识(转) 1716740618 小梦
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[虚拟币交流]
2024年比特币减半:比特币价值繁荣还是矿工生存危机?(转)
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随着2024年的到来,加密货币界的预期达到了狂热的程度,因为每个人都在为比特币减半做准备——这一事件可能会重塑其市场格局。从历史上看,这一事件在加密货币领域引发了变革性的浪潮,值得关注。知道我们从以前的挫折中学到了什么,我们将以敏锐的眼光向前看,确保我们的行动受到这些见解的影响。但即将到来的减半有什么不同吗?让我们来弄清楚。
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从数字黄金到稀有白金:比特币稀缺性和价值不断提升的故事
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; J; l P# e, ~- f比特币的设计就是随着时间的推移,使比特币的可用性越来越低,从而控制通货膨胀。比特币的上限是2100万枚,我们已经达到了1962万枚。比特币的稀缺性及其在市场上的严格限制是人们称之为“数字黄金”的一个主要原因,因为这两种资产都具有“难以获得”的质量。
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; v7 e5 n* ~8 F将比特币区块链视为一个滴答作响的时钟,我们可以看到,每21万个区块,或者大约每四年减半一次,挖掘新区块的奖励被减半。自2009年比特币推出以来,比特币一直是这样的,从每个区块50比特币开始,到2024年降至3.125比特币。* t: [: h& c! d( h% h1 B
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: Q5 ` l5 y% P$ [) I3 T股票流量比将现有的供应量与即将到来的新硬币进行比较,表明比特币即将变得比白金唱片更稀有。到2032年,在2024年和2030年的衰退之后,比特币的稀缺性将飙升,因此它将比黄金更像一颗宝石。
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来源:LookIntoBitcoin
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- S+ z4 D% f- G9 n- S+ A比特币的后减半增长模式
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$ c; s4 x" e1 J7 ~( ]) |& G; X让我们沿着比特币的记忆之路漫步。每次减半后,比特币的价格都会飙升。在2012年减半后,仅仅100天后,市值就爆炸式增长了342%。更令人印象深刻的是,第二年的最高价格达到了惊人的1152美元,跃升了8761%。快进到2016年:奖励减半,从25 BTC降至12.5 BTC,第二年价格飙升至17760美元,涨幅为2572%。在2020年的最近一次减半中,奖励降至6.25比特币,比特币的价格也没有让人失望,第二年达到67549美元,稳步增长594%。
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, i6 Z+ \. u( T$ N1 h2 }如果我们玩一玩纸上谈兵的数学家游戏,我们可以看看比特币的增长率在经历了几次下跌后是如何下降的——从一减半到二减半70.64%,从二减半到三减半76.91%——并将这些下降平均下来,以73.78%的增长率下降。然后,我们将其计入第三次减半后594.03%的增长率,瞧,2024年减半后,我们的推测增长率为155.79%。这意味着比特币在即将减半后的一到一年半内可能达到111807美元左右。但让我们明确一点:这一切都只是猜测,绝对不是你投资决策的基础。1 t6 t* a% t7 ?- X8 ~5 ~2 n/ h
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矿工优胜劣汰
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1 \4 h9 d# S r; F对于比特币矿工来说,2024年的减半将是一场艰苦的战斗。随着奖励减半,使用过时设备运营并面临高昂电费的矿工将陷入进退两难的境地。例如,在意大利,开采一枚比特币的成本高达208560美元,相当于一辆豪华兰博基尼Huracán或保时捷911 Turbo S。
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" K! S! n4 x% U- G+ W7 E来源:CoinGecko
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2024年的减半将使采矿业景观变成一个让人想起“饥饿游戏”的场景,在那里,只有拥有最高效技术和可负担能源的最强矿工才能生存。这一减半将像是一个终极竞技场,是对战略和韧性的考验,只有那些具备精明、成本效益高的战术的人才会成为竞争战场上的胜利者。
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因此,随着采矿业务的重大变化和比特币价格的潜在大幅波动,2024年比特币减半将严重改变局面。即将到来的减半活动将严厉的经济理论与尖端技术进步融合在一起,所有这些都被明确无误的加密货币诱惑所包裹。无论你是在挖矿、闲逛,还是只是在场边观看,都要拿起你的爆米花——这将载入史册!
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# ]! k/ u" E) Z8 U8 V: g这是Maria Carola的客串帖子。所表达的观点完全是他们自己的,不一定反映BTC公司或比特币杂志的观点。6 K: U0 f8 v' O
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9 `8 y3 Y0 _! B$ R作者:玛丽亚·卡罗拉" `% R& o0 H, n4 e! U! {+ @! ~
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