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周末为何交易量不减反增？美联储8月几乎不可能临时加息 | 受利好盘面开始反弹
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这个周末终于安心了；市场的走势让大家也都松了口气；盘面交易量不仅不萎靡反倒很活跃。虽然大饼和以太的流通量下滑，资金也出现了缩减。但多头的情绪已经水涨船高了。
宏观层面来看的话CPI的利好仍能对市场起到影响的作用，但是只是在情绪上，并不代表有大量的新资金涌入这个市场，比较目前大家都在猜测美联储下一步的动向，昨晚发言的美联储FOMC票委虽然内容比较中性，但是细节还是捕捉到了一些东西，这也是刺激风险市场的原因。
首先他并未明确支持9月加息的状态，也侧向表明了美联储对接下来的几次加息意见并未统一，具体加息数据还是要等PCE出来，还有9月的非农和CPI，但目前起码有了喘息的机会
巴金尔昨晚发言完后美股就开始上涨，而且语气美国经济并未出现明显衰退的情况下DXY也开始下跌，DXY和风险市场的资金关联很大，DXY降低的时候风险市场才能有更多的资金，但是目前DXY（美元指数）还是处于高位
而且DXY的下跌影响的不仅仅是美元，还有美元体系中最关键的美债系统，也是从昨天晚上22点开始，美债整体又出现了整体抛售的情况，尤其是短期美债，即便是到闭盘为止都依然是处于抛售的情况，只有中长期的美债才出现了一些购买的情况，但购买的力度依然不足。最近美债的收益率确实表现的很奇怪。
短期美债的收益率虽然没有达到历史的最高点，但也只有一步之遥了，而这么高的利率不但没有大量的资金购买，反而还有更多的资金在出售。这种情况下虽然说有可能是短期美债的投资者离场转投风险市场，或者是短期美债的投资者转投更长期的美债，但平均已经超过3.2%的美债收益率换在上个月就会被疯抢。
而且对于币市的投资者更加关注的是，资金到底是从美债出来了，还是资金准备进入美债的问题。虽然美债的收益率显示确实是大量的资金离场导致了殖利率的上升，但是离场的美债去哪里了，现在并没有明显的迹象，而大量资金离场后带来的就是短期美债的收益率直线上升，一年期的美债在周内已经突破了历史高点。
这就意味着短期美债对于风险市场的资金吸引力越来越高，随着美债殖利率的继续上升，很有可能离场的资金没有进入风险市场，反而风险市场的资金进入了美债市场，尤其是体量较低，目前只能靠ETH合并利好来带动整体上涨的币市。场外资金的流入和场内资金的流出才是目前最重要的博弈。
而从实际的情况来看，虽然作为成交主力的USDT每天都有外部的资金注入，但一方面是注入的资金并不算多，基本每两天一亿美金的样子，但USDC却以同等的数字在减持，所以几乎是两相抵消了。尤其是最近USDT和USDC的汇率有扩大的趋势，导致了汇率差的利润几乎提升了一倍，所以大概率还是汇率搬砖的结果。
当外部资金并没有明显的进入趋势的时候，就代表了很难将BTC和ETH的价格大举的向上推进，而想要维持震荡或者震荡上行的价格走势，就需要看场内资金的博弈了，而从目前的情况来看，截止到今天早晨八点的资金数据来看，USDT和USDC又双双的走出了近半年的最低资金体量，这是购买力降低的表现。
尤其是购买情绪和购买力是完全不同的两种能量，现在虽然购买的情绪高涨，但并不代表有足够的资金来支持购买力。而目前的情况就是购买的情绪依然是不错的，但是购买力却严重不足，换句话来说，就是大家都在看涨，但是该买的人早就已经买了，而没买的人觉得目前的价格已经挺高了，现在买就是追高。
来源：金色财经 |
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