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上周反弹到2.2w关口，我依然不为所动，有人和我探讨到2.5w的位置，我并没有这么乐观，原因很简单，当时的情况只是抛压减少了而已，同时不管是宏观环境还是资金买入都没有丝毫的改善，上涨最重要的一点就是资金的持续性，多次说过了，资金弱势。另外说到2.5w的问题，这就是百分之三十以上的空间了，在趋势中百分之三十的反弹属于阶段性机会，我并没有在数据中找到结论去验证。
当前的局势是跌势放缓，横盘空间拉长，震荡幅度也变小了，这种行情持续一段时间就会给散户一种错觉，就是调整到位了，事实并非如此，是否到底，价格还不是最重要的，最重要的我认为是时间够不够，在大的趋势中，不可能三五个月走完全程，目前我的推算只走了七个月左右，最少还要两个月走完熊市，最长就不确定了，需要国际局势回暖，这一点目前还没有迹象，甚至有愈演愈烈之势。
所以接下来两个月都可以不用看我写的了，有上涨，一律按照反弹来计算，上限就是百分之三十左右的幅度，有下跌，按照百分之十五来计算，通常来说都在上限之内，打对折的上涨下跌机会还是很多的，但我不建议操作，很累，要么做大周期，要么不动。大周期好比西瓜，小周期都是芝麻，不能做丢西瓜捡芝麻的事情。
再来说下大饼的实际情况，目前场内存量还算稳定，207万枚的数字在历史低位区域，预计还会进一步压缩，下降到200万枚以内用不了多久了。从巨鲸的动向我们能够发现，交易所存量越低它们的操作空间是越大的，因为巨鲸只做大周期，同时让行情出现阶段性机会的成本极小，因为存量低，短时间内就能完成目标。另外根据比特币Ahr999指标来看，目前是0.336，历史极限位置是0.21，这样看来还有很大空间，所以不着急进场。
最近大家关心最多的问题是选哪些好，这个问题因人而异，我只提供一个思路，例如说公链，你可以把排名找出来，目前排在前五的是以太坊，BSC，波场，雪崩，Solana。以太坊生态里面前五的项目再找出来，暂时是MakerDAO，WBTC，Lido，Uniswap，Curve。BSC前五，波场前五等等都找出来，按照自己认为的价值判断来区分下，就能做到心中有数了。同样的道理用在其它方面也是通用的。
再补充一个问的比较多的问题，就是巨鲸买入的情况，我们断断续续也能看到巨鲸还在买入，只是没去年多了，现在每次的量都很少，几十枚到小几百枚，上千枚的半年没发生过了。其实买不买也不是它们能决定的，因为目前绝大多数的巨鲸地址都不是私人地址，绝大部分是基金形式存在的，有明面的，有暗地里的，客户给了你钱，你只能买入。这也是我们目前还能零散看到巨鲸买入的原因。但是这些地址或是比特币都不是自己的，且是一个中长期的投资行为，所以目前只是有压力，并不是一定非要卖出，而且买入之后还有一个约定的锁定期，最短都是半年以上，所以真正的巨鲸抛压还没有来，只是逼近了，这也是我认为的会破1.8w的参考因素。 来源：金色财经 |
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