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特朗普获胜后会发生什么？从金融交易员到加密爱好者，甚至乌克兰总统泽连斯基，都在密切关注。
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唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）赢得了美国总统大选，并将在2025年1月6日宣誓成为第47任总统。 & U/ e* A2 U& @# ]) P1 I7 o
对于加密市场来说，似乎只有上涨的方向。在选举夜乔治亚和北卡罗来纳州加入其支持阵营之前，交易员们已开始在外汇、债券和加密市场布下重仓。
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由于市场担心美国赤字将进一步扩大，美国国债收益率走高。特朗普计划对所有进口商品征收关税，这推动美元走强，同时比特币也突破新高至75,000美元以上，受益于特朗普转变立场，成为加密市场的“意外传道者”。 " G0 [' H$ q5 U
原油市场也受到影响。由于担心美国将增大全球供应，符合特朗普的“钻探吧”口号，原油价格有所下滑。“特朗普交易”强势回归。 * ?6 d7 T5 t: q0 k
值得注意的是，历次总统选举对比特币价格而言都是利好。从2012、2016和2020年三次选举周期来看，比特币在选举后六个月内的涨幅分别达到949%、131%和328%。2024/25年可能会带来有史以来最大的选举后涨幅，预测价格将冲向200,000美元。 % Z* B4 d4 M- C8 C
即便如此，现在依然有聪明的交易机会可以抓住，顺势而为。
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首选之一是特朗普媒体与科技集团 (DJT)，该公司在盘前交易中上涨35.7%，至$33.94。TMTG的主要业务是Truth Social小型博客平台。
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虽然公司基本面显示其为亏损企业（每股收益为负，-0.59美元），但股票表现如同“迷因股”，其价值随特朗普的ZZ命运波动。随着特朗普形势转为看涨，买入为佳。 ) W5 q3 r8 b; J k+ ]8 l4 d
特朗普会青睐电动车制造商特斯拉吗？马斯克的特斯拉是另一个必选标的。尽管特斯拉的环保使命与特朗普的气候变化否认论以及对电动汽车的态度存在矛盾，但马斯克可能会在联邦ZF中担任新设立的ZF效率部的负责人。他对特朗普的影响力已得到证明。 1 X1 a8 U0 f9 I# m1 S
从特斯拉股价在盘后交易的涨势来看，市场认为特朗普将对电动车态度回暖，意味着补贴将保持，甚至可能增加。
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不过，也存在一个小小的隐患，即利益冲突要求马斯克放弃在多家公司（包括特斯拉）的CEO职位，这或许会令股东不满。 4 n) K/ N- v: c5 V& e+ ^
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总体而言，马斯克前所未有的对美政权的接近与总统影响力，确实对特斯拉构成价值加成。特斯拉在美盘前上涨13.2%，至$251.4。买入。 # M# I; F0 o% P6 s3 k+ z6 L
加密货币是最佳的特朗普交易马斯克的影响正好引向加密货币领域。或许你已经注意到，ZF效率部的缩写为$DOGE，正是迷因币鼻祖狗狗币的代号。 / v/ A5 E6 g' B0 d( y
随着市场消化特朗普胜选的可能性，计票过程中，$DOGE开始大幅上涨，一度上涨26%，当前报价为$0.1974，上涨17.6%。 7 B: u; ^. ?# U3 ~* Z
马斯克与狗狗币的长期关系使其在加密货币市场占据了突出地位。随着特朗普立志将美国打造为“加密之都”，这一现象只会愈加显著。 ' \/ f8 [0 Y W3 S: S- ^
7 q' T3 h0 F& e6 C1 R目前阶段，加密货币可能是最佳的“特朗普交易”选择。虽然现阶段很难判断特朗普和马斯克的政策计划究竟会如何落地，但解雇加密不友好的证券交易委员会主席加里·根斯勒，或将成为推出加密友好监管框架的第一步。 |
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