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顶级投资人比尔·阿克曼：未来2年 市场将上调预期利率
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原文作者：Bill Ackman 原文编译：wzp，BlockBeats Bill Ackman 是美国著名对冲基金 Pershing Square Capital Management的创始人兼首席执行官。7 月 13 日，美国公布 6 月份 CPI 数据，同比上涨 9.1%，为 1981 年 11 月以来最大增幅。Ackman 在社交媒体发表对于未来利率发展的观点： 由于 CPI 数据表现出广泛且加速的上涨，短期联邦基金利率期货上涨，或暗示着利率在 22 年 12 月前最高能达到 3.68%，随后美联储将在 2024 年 1 月前将利率下调至 2.9%。 市场隐含的预期为美联储的激进政策将在年底前使经济步入衰退，然后采取降息来应对。几周前美联储发布的点阵图表明，利率将升至略高的水平，在 2023 年保持平稳，并从 2024 年开始逐渐降低。 
点阵图记录每位美联储官员对央行关键短期利率的预测 在 CPI 公布之后，远期利率曲线与美联储预期之间的差距进一步扩大。似乎市场已假设美联储将像过去三次衰退中那样采取行动，即在经济陷入衰退时立即量化宽松。虽然这看起来好像是凭直觉，但其实是 70 和 80 年代滞胀时期不同的政策结果的经验。如今的经济背景伴随着高名义需求、有限供应和高通胀，相较于投资者最关心的三次衰退历史，类比 70 年代与 80 年代的经济状况更合适。 当时因阿瑟·F·伯恩斯（1970-1978 年任美联储主席）决定降低利率而导致经济受到损害，因为在高通胀时期实际 GDP 放缓，这催生了多年的大规模通货膨胀。直到时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克（1979-1987）将利率提高到 20% 才平息。 鲍威尔和美联储理事们非常了解伯恩斯的政策错误，并且这也能解释他们的点阵图曲线。沃尔克多年来维持远高于 CPI 的利率以缓和通货膨胀。因此对 3.7% 的利率是否足以抑制 9.1% 的 CPI 表示怀疑。时间将证明峰值利率是否需要在较长时间内达到 4%+。 我们为纽约联储 IACFM 会议准备了演示文稿。在会议中，我们总结了伯恩斯和沃尔克的经验，以及即使在 2023 年或更早进入衰退，美联储仍会将利率长时间保持在更高水平原因，以及为什么我们认为需求将保持高位，供应将继续受到限制，高通胀将持续存在。 美联储有两个硬工具，联邦基金利率和预期管理。年终的利率预测是实现他们目标的开始。从年底开始，到未来的 18 至 24 个月，利率的市场预期需要上调。 市场仍然对点阵图和美联储理事最近关于允许通胀预期失控的风险声明不以为然。我预计随着美联储提供更多的明确信息和强调需要长时间来提高利率，并且当市场参与者仔细审视 70 年代和 80 年代初的先例及其与当前经济状况的可比性时，市场将上调预期利率。 来源：金色财经 |
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