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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
4 f8 W0 t" X0 J# d' e* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
& V1 h! [6 x2 n凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k8 a0 G$ u- w* y+ f! A0 G8 J
. x' L9 z; ^/ `* b( ]G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)% G! x; \& L4 i
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
4 H( f' a! t' L8 u# o/ |- k7 W& n- d1 s+ [ m# H" h7 f2 K
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h" k2 I6 `, K" ]( y5 F9 `
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ + h3 `$ x9 b) s* ]2 g$ P9 T
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
5 R X* I* `1 ]做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
[6 A; ^: n# ~, [+ @; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d5 L: \! d" {. {& W1 S2 Y$ M
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n7 s4 h7 J& c' e4 Q6 ^. ^
/ p: }2 [$ Q3 W! z6 z(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 . l8 `# A! u/ p( c, O! o
c+ `# f, j7 Q
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
: ~' ^% d; E, v7 c4 r* O# `% I
$ s5 F U% T& j1 T5 s: _9 `$ q(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
- @5 q1 p* D) ^! r; A3 E& X$ o- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _1 b9 b- b; E2 [. j
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
( c7 N5 o* t) |( l5 X% S t5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c+ }0 L5 E8 I# j) s
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 0 o6 z0 v) i+ G+ n5 \, ^
( V8 t# `& x# y4 eS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
; L6 h, l8 V6 R/ A% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
% K5 h( `& e* `/ f; ^ E2 {- hS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
# G% P* N A* S3 Y% M! ^9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
7 \3 [) j" T) k+ K( x! j2 dS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
. q; n1 j; \) u8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v `# ]6 {/ T+ E; d5 s$ n! r
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 3 v, |: i( ^ X4 S
+ S* F0 v$ o6 Z1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
7 o" T5 h7 D; c' g/ |: T. M6 X3 g9 Z1 _, g( A+ e) J
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
g( i/ L7 S$ F6 y: J1 D7 S7 z" J1 Z1 ~' V9 a2 q+ |6 `
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ; G' W& w: {+ ?: _1 r9 B: }: P
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r+ f! x( B6 f3 j5 u E
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
! O) q1 a, U0 o( g' n9 ^9 _. e! n, w6 `& z y! j
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j0 [: V0 X. p- r! e. ~" W# T t
9 R4 W1 c# c, D+ f: j8 zS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
1 N N. O% t% }3 Z* c- k1 T
4 \& ]! C( ?& kS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s0 v, d: G# e( C7 Y
; m' V% T, u, P% O- z+ g/ j1 o& ^
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 & J! @7 @3 s0 |
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a* G! E" ?- T# S
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
" A* g7 ~8 U' a+ F: b' n: X# ~: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~3 B" l8 P! z( }& Y
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o, e) C3 h' @- i+ {6 S
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 N9 @+ V3 ]4 K1 o, p! [: |
) q( ], k9 L T& t8 K3 j! C# R& N+ j% e
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
& j, D9 `4 o" f' T& k( [: u1 W) t9 B8 C6 `+ w. h/ f5 e1 q3 @- _/ a
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 , \* q0 m( o8 {9 o( C
3 b& J+ k/ a8 ], z! O. x8 z
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?' _7 Z) E/ |, ]: e, D9 x' {
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
; P" |& ?$ A1 BG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M# V0 \; }( e& R& T
+ D$ n) P# X# M
3 T( j/ Y4 @0 k0 x8 @1 YG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 6 v) S s$ j9 g9 b4 G8 q- _) t* W' a
3 m1 O7 _8 y% o* q2 u9 U1 AG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
- P1 e1 ?! S) a$ I/ Z$ j. t5 L
* W$ O% }! F5 K' E0 n" m" K当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \: k: B/ o) \1 S4 w. r! N% @
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
! Y, i/ n- T2 T! r3 h通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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