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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘) {: l' X$ s" e- H$ `+ M$ E8 T
w$ x. W, M b8 X- ]# U3 M L: L 平手中水,主队有利2 K' B& D7 r2 }
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
" x. T2 ~$ n# H. }9 z 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:0 N* r7 d1 ~+ X8 F( Z U* T
英超主队
_+ r. Q( L5 D( T! f( U7 r0 k 胜:13场 48%
+ w, a# Z' n# ~( {, E0 Z: v2 \5 a% [8 x 平:5场 17%
- H2 q+ {5 @5 F 负:9场 35%
: G7 A$ _3 K) R2 k$ x 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。. j4 q" t# ?' V* g: U/ Q
& F! Q( i/ K2 E 一、初盘阶段* [$ ]. b& B, Y8 {
具体到水位如下:0 n+ v, b) N( h* i/ A& V
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负& |8 _% {9 ^8 y1 \4 x( w
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
! ~5 J, j' S5 u ] ~6 ~5 D 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
" R: f2 W" ^1 e Q% p7 k+ G, E% u & Y G! x( b- v0 C
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
9 A" `- ?" q. t( C) l' g 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。- w, S, w6 k/ c' ^* F2 c) m0 O/ `! g
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。6 h, J3 `3 C4 b N9 B6 U
" A5 [2 c- t9 W
二、临场阶段' a4 h5 S; M$ q/ p
6 |! I9 E8 ?0 _2 J, F, y
具体到变盘和水位如下:
c Y4 m$ a$ n2 d! i 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负1 c) s. Y7 B( |/ u
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负) i0 A$ o" f: t% M' t0 J/ n5 L
" X4 B3 [3 c, { 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。+ E9 I2 I* ]/ o, v
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
4 e+ ^* Z$ [, i6 S
. f) d2 X# h' b! O 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿6 G/ e) b7 J) V" S1 b+ Y
初盘:0.82平手1.04. j9 s; M9 A7 A$ j) w
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
! p p7 q" ]( ~
0 ]/ ]* U$ g2 o) @ 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆5 [5 z8 E' g4 L2 C+ l/ A: U5 K: |+ ?
初盘:0.76平手1.10, g l/ i- ?8 \
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
" N- r( D$ d% s# o
- C8 s: Z- W: W 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技% F/ j9 h2 c4 E" k; T. m1 q
初盘:0.82平手1.04
- r3 Q2 S @8 ]( b 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98* N" _3 W0 x& k) W
( U3 a' i1 z# U' y 伯恩利2-1西汉姆! n% x% `9 A7 N! g
初盘:0.88平手0.98
* u8 D' `' J# J: B1 @% p1 g L 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
% G# c9 G! n6 s+ p3 Y3 P 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
9 U4 e3 k1 R3 O8 p$ @ 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。: J6 _0 ^8 a. O- j' v S
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。* L- d- r* }0 w- X) a/ J& E z. j
/ n/ w' w, K- p1 _ 三、球队表现
: d% L# I. f d6 l) w& m* g4 M b/ w
) k* Z+ t) [8 A 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
; R O- r, Y" v $ k5 }; z5 x7 o% z) s0 d3 _* E
四、投注要点
/ {' i% ^0 K% [7 W 要点1:平手中水、主多不败. n' Q5 b; [7 v% r8 w
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
4 w* ~; D* g e( S0 u 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败0 t. S3 c, n% l! r+ `- M7 {
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
) H" r4 \7 d" {; c2 w/ M" D8 \1 Q 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任: [0 z2 c) x* L
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大8 i. ^: Y- o* K' \0 |5 M
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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