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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑3 _) X) K* y2 j* ^7 g& G8 ~# {: k7 `
* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
" t- t1 D3 j( g' \+ _凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k' I- v* `: O# m! S8 e9 Y9 L7 n
; ?/ Z5 l2 Q1 C. [% |) V' _
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
* }2 W: U* X( C- Z) F p( a7 ?什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
# f9 M" A2 K( G* `; v# p
9 a5 K v4 v( f8 ?# x& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
& w. M5 P7 n& F( c3 g" d4 P* p% S既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 1 X& \" P) ~7 ?( {
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s; `/ J! \: E6 j9 |1 o; Z
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
# L) y0 p: i$ W7 c& k8 y; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
4 h7 |$ n* |/ M(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
9 T$ @$ _+ K' j. ?7 {+ G
% J& V1 Z( E7 {7 ]- C$ Y(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
, r J: F; }0 J0 g- `
. t$ y* o* ^% P- R(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
2 [. l& m2 w8 s8 R, P" R; @% r, l; l
& U2 Y6 {% y5 Y( o% N- B(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 9 j' {. d$ D5 M+ P
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
3 J. k# t0 M0 F+ g( t, [我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 . ~& ^" }& Y1 H8 f! f
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
, k# ~' u! F9 NS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 0 ^: p5 M6 Z5 J- F5 P" m, w9 F
7 { H! A# K3 t
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 3 ~3 r4 M- C7 Q
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
7 `3 ^% @$ g- V1 [9 j0 F4 zS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 , Z2 q1 H/ `/ U' d$ _; k
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j+ p2 J; X8 X# C
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \7 ?, y! B9 Y4 N: h% m8 y: n
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
1 |3 r) N1 b( R7 C# w9 e1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 + N( N2 g2 I" o- @
+ b* y& a9 c8 g' F: E; ?0 @& C! O1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l7 J5 s& f2 ]- _- J) D. v! K
" x5 Z7 Y$ X$ I9 m6 l* y1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q, {! k; ]* I* t, x4 c# V6 V3 V
+ M& f) Q) d' n. B! S
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 0 p6 m1 d$ n6 d
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r" y/ Q j( o% Y4 F& I) E0 P
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
" a+ x1 C7 W1 @% T* b; C( v8 L0 F* Y4 e
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j( C- A! s9 G! T
. y Z9 ~+ G2 D
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 9 V/ e4 t" r6 K! |5 P
& n; u+ V$ d% a, r5 b# y! b4 xS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s/ o1 S X3 N+ V& l
; m' V% T, u, P% O/ W+ x' I8 i h* y9 V- v) l* ^$ _
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 $ f, z- Y3 f; f- {# y' [ K5 _/ p
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a0 ^/ a2 l& C: b: z+ W! d4 r
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
; K7 m4 ^2 I# p4 P, _* Q: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~5 e1 u+ o! ^/ ]& ]- z5 a5 ]
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o" d. @! E4 ]+ G8 A" Y* u w' g8 @( s
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \6 u# A J- |/ ]) E- [. u ^
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 6 T, y" E! O, Q+ V% e8 p; q- o. I$ s
) q( ], k9 L T& t4 I) T- L6 E0 h4 J; ]4 H- e: r* Y
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
, g# d* {) `7 g" X
6 @+ S! ?/ m0 I1 J6 L) i# FF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 9 L* ~1 p. \. L( J) Y& x- T
. K* T7 K6 i8 @6 O7 g; w于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?. c% ? C& `% j v! O/ B# X1 i% ]
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
% H- d. E1 d0 Q7 d/ }G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
3 w5 q5 }1 O; l" ^( N+ D$ n) P# X# M% u. s1 j- H) |/ r% i; k
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
& L- W# E( |! X5 A
+ V% u$ Q4 ]" j7 ~5 C: P$ kG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
2 Y3 T7 ~3 y7 H( B, N4 N& I y5 K0 ?1 m+ g
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
$ J& _/ ]/ c8 [8 J5 L( u6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i: i( Y( Y6 {( C" i. L* W2 \ p
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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