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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘2 H6 m5 f; s' l6 C6 b
     
: M: Q1 d6 ~/ Q3 M: z; C" N     平手中水,主队有利7 f# N) y" u& ?" ]# c0 e
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
4 Z/ F+ W! o9 L) Y! D/ p     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
8 {8 ^7 v! f. ^2 Z     英超主队
, a' r9 g, Z1 |: a, m4 f     胜:13场 48%
6 q- [% L% k3 W+ I) a* R+ e" K7 \     平:5场 17%. @/ a8 q. A3 b) w
     负:9场 35%3 U& S& ^: h2 d1 s2 w
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
) O5 w$ l' D+ V3 m6 V     
- T- W2 s1 I: J& b- O/ e     一、初盘阶段
1 e' x, v. S9 k) I% _     具体到水位如下:
: F# H* ~( f9 p. C     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
& ^& c) J0 m; V     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
0 c/ e' B/ C" l& J7 [2 Q9 N     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负$ Z- O( X/ N8 [/ s# k6 ]$ g
     * K$ X& M) l2 S, @) k  e( f
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
+ ]% W2 m* z& j+ U% L: c# ?     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。/ Z4 [; j  f, N* c3 N) ^) n
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
( T( u% N5 Y% {3 a     9 [: T, N5 b( _% F, F6 |
     二、临场阶段7 `6 f: j, @! G( Y$ L# @
     
2 V' S8 s! A( [, J: ^9 j     具体到变盘和水位如下:
* R! l3 m% M; r6 r1 O! u     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
8 n5 `$ I( y$ ]; \" G* ]6 {     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
( U8 v8 c3 w6 o8 m* D  f- H, @  m     
" m- o& g7 u! Y) Y% u2 {( F. `     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。+ t* ^4 R9 T) ~+ {0 {% Q
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
+ t2 p4 M1 n* r1 {+ o     $ T9 T; U0 l* q+ }/ O
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
: Y' S& I$ W7 z% U/ P/ Z9 z$ X% Y     初盘:0.82平手1.047 N$ E8 e+ Y4 H* r# F  N2 u8 N
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85: b7 C0 {- B# {) k5 d% F6 Z4 x
     9 u. v# F2 O- W# h" n! b, K
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
+ J! j3 R1 J& f6 y4 X4 e     初盘:0.76平手1.10
9 `0 M  J) F0 m9 K5 y$ v1 Q     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.911 d3 {3 h: u8 D9 }; h
     ; f+ j4 [' t% v9 Z4 M
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技3 ?7 x2 O3 h1 W9 a. |1 f2 L2 N
     初盘:0.82平手1.04& k, J9 m& c7 [( Y7 `
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
) @9 w$ @  K5 ^; j! R, b/ C     - G& Z& N( G9 z& V+ {5 w
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆' c- P  R" E6 B* I; R7 v
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
) F* f8 }: s" O7 O( N     终盘:1.12平/半0.749 t7 }3 }/ l7 J" y
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
5 K0 D! |* Y6 o4 t* j( H     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
" r5 j- I% ^3 Z+ v0 \* K# d     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。: _) P6 K% g: d7 ~6 D! K% s. t' O1 ]
     : t. ]/ d- s# D$ V( ?
     三、球队表现  T. U  N1 @* M# c7 E
     % U; t0 r; c+ t# n& [/ Z
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。" ^! l% q& O% B& N% j% h
     
5 T0 l$ H! {# @* o8 R$ s3 Y. D     四、投注要点
6 E2 |' O; \9 p4 }% N$ R     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
* S9 b4 _3 g! O. C) X$ ?4 l     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
, ?$ G6 A1 B. V; e  A9 y! m- ^  C     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
6 [+ m1 a$ X& f! g! {# ]2 m8 U  u) H     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大4 i1 W$ j# T3 Z# t4 W) t
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
2 T# y2 ~( n- O2 X% {     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大2 K+ s( g2 w4 {( B+ c9 \
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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