优惠论坛
Well123
注册
找回密码 |
天策评选的优秀公司,所有会员与公司发生的问题我们将负责尽力协助处理。
收起/展开
新晋公司
 

新晋公司具有驻站代表,并不在论坛纠纷服务范围内,请会员自行判断选择

  • 356
S级信誉公司
ManBetX万博
YZ
乐投
taptap(点点)
E世博
瑞丰国际
A级信誉公司
吉祥坊
星宝合营
乐动体育
B级信誉公司
bet365
C级合作公司
CMP
金星
LOKI
平博
  • 推荐主题
  • 热门活动
  • 币圈快讯
  • 商城动态
重要通知
 
论坛搜索
              搜索
Array ( [fid] => 6728 [description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮! [password] => [icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png [redirect] => [attachextensions] => [creditspolicy] => Array ( [digest] => Array ( [usecustom] => 1 [cycletype] => 0 [cycletime] => 0 [rewardnum] => 1 [extcredits1] => 0 [extcredits2] => 0 [extcredits3] => 0 [extcredits4] => 0 [extcredits5] => 0 [extcredits6] => 0 [extcredits7] => 0 [extcredits8] => 0 [rid] => 3 [fid] => 6728 [rulename] => 加精华 [action] => digest [fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728 ) [post] => Array ( [usecustom] => 1 [cycletype] => 1 [cycletime] => 0 [rewardnum] => 5 [extcredits1] => 0 [extcredits2] => 0 [extcredits3] => 0 [extcredits4] => 0 [extcredits6] => 0 [extcredits5] => 0 [extcredits7] => 0 [extcredits8] => 0 [rid] => 1 [fid] => 6728 [rulename] => 发表主题 [action] => post [fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728 ) [reply] => Array ( [usecustom] => 1 [cycletype] => 1 [cycletime] => 0 [rewardnum] => 0 [extcredits1] => 0 [extcredits2] => 0 [extcredits3] => 0 [extcredits4] => 0 [extcredits6] => 0 [extcredits5] => 0 [extcredits7] => 0 [extcredits8] => 0 [rid] => 2 [fid] => 6728 [rulename] => 发表回复 [action] => reply [fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728 ) ) [formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";} [moderators] => [rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验 [threadtypes] => Array ( [required] => 1 [listable] => 1 [prefix] => 1 [types] => Array ( [137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则 [138] => 体育菠菜心得方法 [139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询 ) [icons] => Array ( [137] => [138] => [139] => ) [moderators] => Array ( [137] => [138] => [139] => ) ) [threadsorts] => Array ( ) [viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92 [postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92 [replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92 [getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92 [postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92 [postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92 [spviewperm] => [seotitle] => [keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法 [seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a> [supe_pushsetting] => [modrecommend] => Array ( [open] => 0 [sort] => 0 [orderby] => 2 [num] => 10 [imagenum] => 5 [imagewidth] => 200 [imageheight] => 150 [maxlength] => 0 [cachelife] => 900 [dateline] => 0 ) [threadplugin] => Array ( ) [replybg] => [extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";} [jointype] => 0 [gviewperm] => 0 [membernum] => 0 [dateline] => 0 [lastupdate] => 0 [activity] => 0 [founderuid] => 0 [foundername] => [banner] => [groupnum] => 0 [commentitem] => [relatedgroup] => [picstyle] => 0 [widthauto] => 0 [noantitheft] => 0 [noforumhidewater] => 0 [noforumrecommend] => 0 [livetid] => 0 [price] => 0 [fup] => 6831 [type] => forum [name] => 体育知识讲座 [status] => 1 [displayorder] => 5 [styleid] => 0 [threads] => 2735 [posts] => 23139 [todayposts] => 0 [yesterdayposts] => 0 [rank] => 113 [oldrank] => 114 [lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89 [domain] => [allowsmilies] => 1 [allowhtml] => 1 [allowbbcode] => 1 [allowimgcode] => 1 [allowmediacode] => 0 [allowanonymous] => 0 [allowpostspecial] => 1 [allowspecialonly] => 0 [allowappend] => 0 [alloweditrules] => 0 [allowfeed] => 0 [allowside] => 0 [recyclebin] => 1 [modnewposts] => 2 [jammer] => 1 [disablewatermark] => 0 [inheritedmod] => 0 [autoclose] => 0 [forumcolumns] => 0 [catforumcolumns] => 0 [threadcaches] => 0 [alloweditpost] => 1 [simple] => 16 [modworks] => 1 [allowglobalstick] => 1 [level] => 0 [commoncredits] => 0 [archive] => 0 [recommend] => 0 [favtimes] => 0 [sharetimes] => 0 [disablethumb] => 0 [disablecollect] => 0 [ismoderator] => 0 [threadtableid] => 0 [allowreply] => [allowpost] => [allowpostattach] => )
打印 上一主题 下一主题
[体育菠菜心得方法] 亚洲让球盘的数学描述
  [复制链接]
avatar
跳转到指定楼层
1#
一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。, ^$ B1 H8 f# B, u* Q4 S
那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:* R) \' O7 W( c$ _+ Z0 @, }
A(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}$ _$ [$ D0 t* k5 x- E) z/ y4 u
A(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}5 o" B9 Y+ D8 o2 t
A(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:
& ~+ V5 X( J! U/ s7 s% [P(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}5 A' U( X9 _) W, G1 {
二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline), z0 C6 N9 p- I: r( q
假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
; H. c7 [; i) P{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生+ T' Q( X7 n9 p
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生  I; T4 `5 K/ M+ f. r$ H4 N4 @
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生4 N$ G* d! H5 T$ U# D. G  ]* H1 Z! r
以及  t4 \+ J( ?, ]4 t
{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
9 K2 A( H7 J: A" k6 W/ ]* d% CR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生# t$ K4 d' d3 `1 C3 J9 O% l
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生& r" Y* o6 P8 y9 k
如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率
) y& A8 t. f' L- j. y9 d那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
" K: p/ I. A8 \: BE[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]! s, S$ ?7 _6 ~
E[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]
6 _# w! ^+ V' A5 w8 c9 b按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
+ D2 T; v$ A" r8 ~E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h)
6 a) _7 b$ v+ W& `4 p4 aP(d)+p(h)O(h)=1
" R6 j9 i6 I2 G# dO(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式
8 @8 I3 f# k& F. NE[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a)
, E# x2 s7 H. b9 [1 X2 @% uP(d)+p(a)O(a)=1( B' r) Z, D: B8 ~& a0 w
O(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式
* @5 n4 H/ J) I: l在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数
+ _" m# A* O( M& h! `, w+ p6 A三、半球盘的计算描述, \# u. B0 k3 F  e, ~
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况)  Q& r& [* Z8 _/ X1 a
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:7 ]6 m/ l3 `* U2 D: F7 j" N& J* c/ o
{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生* ~1 j( T: A1 u) b' ^1 T
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
: C/ L9 ]& y+ k8 F{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
5 |3 ?& _! W  ^* g7 l: {0 K& i以及
: x" C5 n3 W7 P{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
- U% F/ f7 o2 b; r" aR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
! w6 [, v- O, N# X6 P8 D# k) l- y{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生, R& J& U8 [' n' F
如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率7 n3 v' ~  c7 D. a+ |, Z; x
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为) Y" {, x& a; w8 E" s( ]" }
E[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]
7 [, h2 u  o4 y& R  V& b3 L4 IE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)
( P0 V! l6 ]/ t7 G3 g2 I0 y假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等5 X! H- U% N5 z6 Q: ^0 g& N/ x3 B
E[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h)* p" I+ b9 g& ^" j& c9 ^
O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=1
, h( d0 B8 x! ~4 wO(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]
- k( w2 G# ^9 M% B6 D5 AE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)
0 m9 j, ^% Z3 w, o: q$ QP(a)*O(a)=1
& O+ g7 n* U/ O* w, P/ M6 L6 pO(a)=1/P(a)
* S9 a: c: i4 x, d  o4 f! m% w同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率
& e* ^4 J, u: X: SO(h)=1/p(h)
4 }0 @7 l% F& o% x6 S: I6 }+ S7 lO(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]- M) o8 R7 k  |
四、平半球盘的计算描述6 D6 k" T3 g  U/ L" v( |4 a
这个稍复杂一点: x* S5 ^; r! k* X0 Y7 ]1 B
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况)
$ e, B+ g) D) R/ g& e: T还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:
' C3 J  F5 o7 {) |1 Q{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生% J+ V0 H& M( z* ?8 h( t
R(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
# P2 o) F: p' K/ u! s9 e. X{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
: c0 s7 K2 z! {以及3 K! s) Y# @% ]/ P5 f8 p3 a
{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
! |& b2 K$ c  D. g/ o$ Y* cR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
& i7 T4 ^# E9 e0 n+ G5 x! p{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
6 ^1 j7 g- ~8 I' r投注主客的期望回报总数分别为  T/ {6 u& q- b! U+ ^3 n4 I" D
E[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))7 v* J. e2 h! p% K$ z2 Q
E[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]
& G/ N, Q% j5 c0 j. S5 [和上面计算过程相似,得出:
; B! d; a2 P& bE[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h)
0 k! ]2 h$ t5 I+ j3 V- {6 }P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=1! ?6 _1 g  A6 H+ ?( J0 H. ?
O(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=1+ _) l8 d' l: X
O(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))3 Z/ L$ q# w- W3 o6 [) r
E[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a)' m# y0 B( ~1 Y7 c5 ~- b
1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=1
5 l) c& m- H1 d' t8 TO(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a)9 v# n+ r7 t! W, M, l( _6 x
同样主队让平半就分别是' _( }- {- D2 j% E2 w" \
O(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h)
1 I$ b  H' X8 P& TO(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a))
  W0 a/ L4 C: g* T7 j* m五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的)
% E6 [1 z! f$ n/ x2 V可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算" o* A1 V6 m! y2 s# i* ^
B(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}' _5 Q2 n3 t2 i
B(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}3 v% A( x# a9 L
B(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数% q1 m  D% B$ e4 C) `/ W; \" o8 O# f
接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:! P: @- b+ ~, s; n/ q
{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生; q! A8 w( P3 D8 G" B
R(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
  R* C! N1 g1 x7 y3 w" o{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
' b" V' I+ s$ g. u  H) E5 w3 Z以及4 ]; J: r2 a( g: A1 }3 G# R
{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生3 P$ V% r5 V- r0 [. |# M
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
& B. `% I. S0 v, F6 J{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生9 i; m9 c! f8 \, H1 T: e
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
0 m) l' t2 X# B/ B, QE[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]
' I- c9 ~1 |( k- BE[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))% u/ {6 o1 e9 w
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等5 c- C+ |* ?/ B0 X; x! X: p$ D- X
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h)
' ?$ s8 l" G: Y# y( UP(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=1
) z6 Q& [( C4 _9 h( ]' {3 P( \2 [O(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)
# O3 D, {0 Z( _+ |O(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1))8 a  s' [3 X5 }: q3 b& @
E[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a)
5 A$ R& I, v2 {0 n, ~5 j& [) y, ?4 ~P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1
5 a$ R/ |$ ]3 n2 N' ~6 E& g: VO(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1)
$ F! [# V) m4 A' F. r* cO(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h))! ~7 P; N+ }7 V8 ^- S, [
以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。
; W: ^. R8 A. o简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。
avatar
12#
这个看起来真有点复杂。
avatar
这个·好复杂的
avatar
10#
楼主的经验不错啊
avatar
9#
新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
avatar
8#
徐曹操曹操双方的首发参赛
avatar
7#
谢谢楼主的分享
avatar
6#
谁看的懂啊。就是你们这些家伙把简单的事复杂化
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
好复杂啊!!!!!
avatar
太复杂,有没有简单易懂的??
avatar
在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率
avatar
2#
好象不是很明白
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 论坛注册

本版积分规则

:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
{:8_290:} {:8_291:} {:8_292:} {:8_293:}
{:8_294:} {:8_295:} {:8_296:} {:8_297:}
{:8_298:} {:8_299:} {:8_300:} {:8_301:}
{:8_302:} {:8_303:} {:8_304:} {:8_305:}
{:8_306:} {:8_307:} {:8_308:} {:8_309:}
{:8_310:} {:8_311:} {:8_312:}
{:8_313:} {:8_314:} {:8_315:} {:8_316:}
{:8_317:} {:8_318:} {:8_319:} {:8_320:}
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
未有绑定记录
 


Powered by 天策论坛   © 2007-2025 天策论坛 | 小黑屋 | 手机|
1717 : 0