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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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3 t% j1 h; |$ a! w, U西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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1 n& y: i) e9 _% Q皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%   P* C3 Y6 F8 u; U4 B- F$ T2 P
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?# k$ v4 A2 x  ~7 f! s2 l+ U

+ x- j# e2 M. X" I, c4 M答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性" ~. Y- f7 w- D- u$ v

4 X! i0 q9 H( C" K' `# \) o4 W对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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+ e# p) S6 j6 N# j  Y增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。, G9 \/ t" ^- }  V% Y6 ?
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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5 ~( R- e$ U# u. T! La) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
9 }/ I7 F5 ]+ D60%的机会你会一无所有) a3 Z" D' R. e
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
% p' h: [- l1 R/ _& ?由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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8 t5 R, L. `( x2 i2 U" ^, ]3 X凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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$ g7 q% F5 F/ O. ^' GA=博彩资金
! H  o2 M, N3 l, o' J% CP=获胜机会) Y# Z* d. |2 i8 I3 O. y
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金); R% r- Y* B& b' N2 y5 U' p6 Q
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。3 O5 H$ w) e# ?% H/ z* R9 X

& f0 d1 }: N9 T好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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# z# O2 [) ]% R1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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$ j5 d0 [0 y+ ^# ]: UA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)8 l, J! S* @& m" b( V8 G6 K. f" o

5 l9 A2 W& D7 x8 {0 y; [A=0' Z* T; p6 N1 v- ?; h  f

& S8 Y5 j- Q2 Z0 h- h' V结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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+ o+ C/ J3 H5 r% S2 Q+ L2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)6 I: |3 u# p8 _3 I3 n9 E/ {$ i
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2), Q8 n; D2 g: U) }3 m

. s0 a; V0 Y) EA=0.1
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3 {( [+ y0 {1 `" W结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去4 c" s  f5 W8 A
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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  @, j) ]3 d4 l# b, p3 E" RA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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0 X" u1 p8 ^5 c" z1 F/ @, X  ~+ VA= -0.2 ! x' g' J3 q/ F

  @  @/ G* N/ y, d结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好% ]. Y- i# g  }, t6 u% V

  m2 }% F9 L! h- x4 @第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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