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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。
/ i* D3 I; D: y, p @
! L. Y% Q' N2 ?* U# [8 z要点总结：
% ?7 O6 ~- t& z$ C: _由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。9 R. U' J4 F& _( Q
链上
( n4 Q# |9 n# G; Z5 t! b2 r- `在区块链上记录和验证的交易。, z( w3 l& r8 I6 h, i
: u, k" U$ z6 U& k T, s& D链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。9 B: L; H( f7 v4 ^1 d/ ?+ ~- _
技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。
6 I7 U# E- W, W% ], G! q本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。, g# n2 i5 O Y) Q% W
# S% L' l8 a& j/ [4 R美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应4 Z3 }0 j1 Z- P, b* L8 R7 J
推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。4 a) [8 x. V( l: z: J" h. S
6 K% J( _1 P4 Q: [; e
当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。- p/ B- v; M, C- ~1 m: r* I8 j
# ?( a6 V) q; I- f链上指标变得具有建设性; ^- X, E% w4 N1 s# N7 H+ t
普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。
' C# ?8 N) L2 q( n+ {2 F7 [: ~4 C7 x" h8 } y
普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。* p6 c5 s6 ~+ e
. d& i- x; X; F( I! w" V5 k
现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf. Z' j9 }+ N) P+ l2 A% P" O1 t
# e b" I$ x, M% A5 e— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日0 n% u$ \) x) l8 O5 u3 I: v
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市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。) X: Z8 G, b. m2 D! d/ I
" H4 x! T! @% D2 K1 t) `6 G
衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。+ i8 \# }% M0 }; e' S( c( @* c, ?
. o- Y# ~: g& p8 X: q+ K技术图表显示动能正在增强。( N( D9 @9 p0 \& E% F/ @7 ?7 k+ G& S
比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI/ q' z* I% ^, @6 t
3 N7 C2 c1 p3 E/ \
相对强弱指数
8 n; I. Y% @1 A) L# E" D
5 G; D, p; m; l5 e$ ~和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD
* V5 g5 d$ v' P移动平均收敛/发散
" z7 [- g ~1 M: a7 L( I, J! q6 w# m) v- f
“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。4 n, _1 ~: r6 G. N# g6 k
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这波反弹真是踩准节奏了，美联储风向一变，币圈立马跟上，真不是瞎涨 |
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