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2022.7.20浅析市场近期爆发原因①超跌反弹，自去年11月份最高点，本轮算是日线第三波探底第一波由65000中位线回落至40000中位线附近，降幅在38.5%上下第二波由40000中位线回落至29000中位线附近，降幅在27.5%上下第三波由29000中位线回落至20500中位线附近，降幅在29.5%上下单从指标来看，日线级别三连跳幅度略微减弱，量能第一波未放量，此时市场还没意识到大跌在悄然来临，第二波放了一点量，这波不少人出逃了出去，这波逃出去的基本都是赚到大钱的止盈了，第三波相较于前两波量能对比，直接就是天量，此阶段散户、机构集体出逃，市场迎来了巨震，不过也正因如此，市场筹码松动，恐慌加剧，正是一些资本入场的好时机，此阶段得到了充分的换手，不敢说，此阶段一定是本轮熊市的最低点，但是离低位应该不远了，下一波牛市，目前的位子大概率扮演上轮19000高位的心理关口作用，作为启动下一轮牛市的关键争夺战！②$ETH2$.0传出最新进展，据说于9.19进行pow至pos的合并升级升级后会有几项重要的变化：1，供给端最高可比目前年减产90%，直接由目前年通胀4%左右降至年通缩-0.3%左右，这还是根据目前EIP1559销毁的$ETH$数量及市场产出eth数量的对比，后续随着defi、$NFT$的回暖、$DAO$、web3的崛起，燃烧的eth会更多，所以eth的价值面临新一轮的重估，就目前连续下杀这么大的情况下，暂时得到了支撑，所以我们也看到这几天的反弹，eth强于$BTC$走势2，eth2.0的质押迎来了更大的市场话语权及收益预期3，eth的实体矿机退出pow市场进而转移至其他市场，比如$ETC$挖矿亦或是超级算力等但是目前etc的价格不足以吸引或者支撑eth众多挖矿人的注意力和收益需求，那么近期etc末日战场强势启动，众多山寨中脱颖而出，就是一些资本看透了eth的pow大军，但凡有那么一部分旷工转移到etc里来，那etc都会得到几何级别倍增所以在此，我们可以大胆地预测下，也许下一个牛市得巅峰时期etc市值达到百亿刀以上，价格达到400-600刀之间的概率还是很大的4，eth的pos即将到来，给潜在的竞争者带来了巨大的压力、所以我们也看到了$MATIC$、$FTM$、$NEAR$的优于大盘率先突破60ma走出多头日线格局$LAYER$2 的$OP$、$DYDX$也得到了充分的价值释放，近期较低位基本上都有50-60个收益顺带的defi领域的$UNI$、$CRV$等这些和eth关系较大的都先于大盘走出了独立行情$CAKE$、$OKT$等其他公链的defi类目前弱于uni、crv这些，但参考上边matic等的反弹逻辑来看的话，后续也许爆发力会在市场热点轮动时更强总之一点就是，让近期这个疲弱的市场，绝望的市场，抓住了一丝希望，这个希望只能是eth，因为eth是“山寨之王”btc代表的资本、机构的意图，而eth代表的是众多散户和万千山寨的风向标，一荣俱荣、一损俱损，eth就是万千罗生的缩影最后大胆的预测：本轮市场热点炒作，26/27撑住的情况下，btc不破20000关口，7月8月两月有望连续两月收阳k，btc有望第一目标26000-28000，第二目标35000-38000，其他众多山寨币较低点50-100点反弹，个别热点币种1-3倍较低点空间以上预测仅是预测，不代表实际走势，各位家人以重要的压力位和支撑位进行滚仓操作，留取底仓搏大盘反弹即可 来源：金色财经 |
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