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[体育菠菜心得方法] 一个博球高手令人深思的发问！（转贴，和大家分享下）
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avatar
35#
回复  远航投资
# z+ C5 B% f, t+ l) L1 w! b  y8 x个人肤浅的理解假盘就是基本面和开出盘的盘口不符合的盘叫做假盘
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- |, \* H8 w5 E) s" i    这句话我个人认为 ...
; J2 C3 L" j/ C4 U  f% xshuisui 发表于 2011-9-8 13:53
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7 h( Y/ C; b& n5 p    多谢楼主的分享。其实我们的想法相差不多。我的理解是这样的，假球肯定是有的，但多数比赛庄家不会直接去控制比赛结果，除非里面包含巨大的利益。多数时候庄家也是在预测，不过由于庄家实力雄厚，各方面专家众多，而且可以通过特殊渠道得到不少消息，所以庄家的对比赛预测的准确率一般会达到七成以上，庄家对自己把握较大的盘口便会诱惑闲家对赌，多数闲家看到朋便宜可占便会仓促出手，结果正中庄家下怀。 我觉得庄家的盈利多数来自和闲家对赌，如果完全靠抽水，扣除运营成本，应该赚不了很多钱。
" @! g/ m7 m# k/ q% L   所以庄家在七成左右的比赛里可以得到可观的利润，另外三成比赛可能他也会预测错误，但这些比赛并不会让他亏损很多，有时甚至还是有赚。而我们闲家呢？即使某个高手能够准确洞察庄家的意图，与庄共舞，那也只能达到七成左右的胜率，有时也会连续亏损，而且狡猾的庄家可能会变化手法，再加上抽水。所以无论如何，我们闲家总是处在一个相对不利的位置。

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avatar
36#
回复  远航投资 7 a# ^5 r7 ]' `7 }4 A9 B0 ~

7 O+ ~$ V) H4 a" q- ^( x. e: u  I0 L* I- \* j4 w
     我不是楼主，你是楼主，现在欧洲顶级联赛对球员、比赛参数的计算系统早就用 ...1 [) t! v" C9 B5 g; I( ~1 o2 }
shuisui 发表于 2011-9-8 15:58

3 @' c# A& r1 x3 x1 Y9 q" l/ R% c+ k, A# E( F

6 q) }5 ?$ @9 ?5 s2 G+ {( m    那我们最好的策略是什么呢？（除了不赌之外）

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avatar
37#
回复  远航投资 1 A4 I, [$ ?+ k" w. C' n
$ C6 d* b6 q' T. i+ ]' o. Z: h

! l+ }6 o% Y( [5 E; O1 }    你说投注吗？如果投注尽量不选择实力盘，选择假盘，当然，要自己吃透的假盘
$ X) Z5 @" B+ k: j) l* z( Oshuisui 发表于 2011-9-8 16:19
8 O. [# w2 {2 ]8 X

- ?9 @  ?& L; a1 j! q. Z' N2 G
  q2 l% k3 y& G4 a" N! A5 |    请问你的意思是不是这样的：找到一个看起来有便宜可占的盘口，然后买看起来可占便宜那方的对面？

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avatar
38#
回复  远航投资
! I$ j$ P4 _  ~( q0 B: H, W7 H, S" u
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     也可以这么理解，不是全部啊，你能把现在说的这个搞好，就足够玩转足球了，其 ...; _9 l6 p6 i) L
shuisui 发表于 2011-9-8 16:27

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    但问题是有时我认为是假盘的结果却是真的，以为是真盘的却打不出来！真的很难搞啊！

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avatar
39#
不亚于买股前对股市的分析···

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avatar
40#
不会体育的来这里看跟看天书差不多

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avatar
41#
谢谢楼主的心得分享！

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avatar
42#
看不懂什么意思 ,因为没玩过球。

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avatar
43#
谢谢 楼主的分享....

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