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Nansen研究：穿越加密牛熊 NFT也有市场情绪指标?
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本文来自Nansen，Odaily星球日报经授权转载发布。 我们评估了加密资产的周期阶段，并根据市场参与者的情绪探索了特定 NFT 的价格行为 普通代币(同质化代币)周期：Nansen 分析了投资者情绪和宏观经济指标，总结如下： 2022 年 5 月，投资者情绪转为“恐慌”，标志着加密货币价格长期整合的开始（见图 1） 为了使加密货币价格退出整合阶段并触底反弹，基本面的不确定性必须降低 这种情况的主要情况是美联储更加专注于失业，而不是通胀。 实际增长正在急剧放缓，这意味着这种情况越来越接近。 历史分析表明，美联储在 2023 年第一季度之前暂停货币紧缩政策的可能性更高（见图 6）
NFT (同质化代币)周期：NFT 与普通代币的相关性弱于普通代币间的相关性，Nansen 基于两个链上指标开发了一个特定于 NFT 市场的投资者情绪指标： 概要我们最近对加密资产市场的分析揭示了四个见解： 1)投资者的情绪在 5 月转为极度恐慌，这转化为对稳定币（尤其是 USDC）的加速配置，以及对各种数字资产（和非数字）“避风港”的投资。在我们看来，这导致了普通代币价格的调整，市场需要更多时间来消化。 2)当前的宏观经济周期正在从滞胀过渡，例如实际增长放缓和通胀上升，导致实际增长急剧恶化和通胀高企。实际增长越弱，美联储推迟进一步加息收紧政策（“美联储看跌期权”）的可能性就越大。当这个概率达到足够的阈值时，它可能会支持加密货币市场。 3)根据我们文件中审查的宏观指标，我们已接近（估计 2022 年第四季度 - 2023 年第一季度）但尚未完全处于支持阶段。 4)这种有利的货币紧缩的暂停，可能比过去的周期更短，因为我们认为在全球地缘政治因素、全球供应链的解体和享受退休生活的“婴儿潮一代”（资产所有权方面最富有的一代）的多年花费支出的推动下，通胀可能会在衰退后重新加速。 将我们的分析扩展到， NFT(非同质化代币) 市场，我们的分析表明，以下指标往往会导致 NFT 价格：1) NFT 的追踪价格波动和 2) 更成熟的NFT藏品的交易量与所有交易量的比率。最后，我们警告说，鉴于可用的数据样本很小（每周交易数据略少于一年），对围绕特定 NFT 观察到的统计关系的解释存在局限性。在将来的研究中纳入更多的样本外实时数据将有助于验证我们研究结果的稳健性。 1.加密资产的宏观展望1.1 |
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